-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
512
FXUS61 KCAR 230141
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
941 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build from eastern Canada through tonight
while low pressure in the open Atlantic drifts further out to
sea. High pressure will crest over the area Monday then retreat
into the Maritimes Tuesday and Wednesday. Later in the week, a
low pressure complex tracks through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
935 pm update...Stratocu is proving to be more persistent
tonight under a strengthening subsidence inversion and moist
easterly flow. METSAT imagery indicates a large complex of
stratocu drifting slowly across the forecast area. Have
increased clouds for tonight into Monday morning. Confidence in
any patchy river valley fog has decreased enough for removal
from the forecast.

Previous discussion...
An upper level ridge will move east with the surface ridge
squeezed between two low pressure systems. The ridge will
continue influence the region tonight. For tonight, some very
weak instability will help produce more cumulus across the area.
Some high-res QPF models show a few isolated showers in the
Central Highlands, but confidence is low due to the lower
surface dewpoints. After midnight, showers chances decrease.
SREF models indicate patchy fog for the north tonight, however,
if the clouds stick around, then the chances will decrease.
Decided to include river valley fog after midnight with the
decreasing temps and light winds. By Monday, clouds will
increase throughout the day with the approaching frontal
boundary to the west. Continuous NE flow will keep temps in the
mid 60s for the day.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridge axis from the Maritimes will continue to bring cool air into
the CWA thru the middle part of the week. High temps in the 60s on
Monday and Tuesday with lows in the 40s each morning. Have little
reason to go against persistence with moisture getting trapped under
subsidence inversion each night leading to mocldy skies and patchy
fog. Showers by the end of the day Wednesday will be a battle
between ridge axis and upr lvl trof moving in fm Canada. Have gone
with chc showers for now acrs the north and west, slowly moving east
Wednesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pops increase Wednesday night into Thursday and ultimately depends
on the low track. Movement of sfc low will likely depend on strength
of ridge axis extending over the area from the Maritimes on
Thursday. Have kept likely pops for the area for a good part of the
day as sfc low and upr low moves thru the CWA. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance differ on solutions by 00z Friday with too much
uncertainty to go any higher than likely pops through the end of the
weekend. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the next 7 days
under rainy conditions with highs around 60 and possibly not getting
out of the 50s in some locations.

Any showers that remain will wind down on Friday with upr ridge
beginning to build in from the Great Lakes. Interesting to note that
whatever system coming in from the Gulf may get caught up in the upr
low over the southern Plains over the weekend. Across our area temps
will remain near normal with high pressure over the northeast into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
625 pm update...The challenge in the 00Z TAFs is whether any IFR
conditions develop in the hours leading up to sunrise Monday
morning for sites north of GNR and HUL. For now, will use TEMPOs
to indicate the potential, but confidence is not high enough for
prevailing FM groups. Some MVFR cigs may follow Monday morning
for these same sites.  Otherwise, VFR is forecast.

NEAR TERM: VFR conditions for all terminals tonight. Light ENE
winds. For Monday, north terminals will be in VFR/MVFR
conditions in low cigs with increasing clouds. South terminals
will be in VFR. Light E winds.

SHORT TERM:
Monday night-Wednesday...MVFR with possible MVFR/IFR in patchy
fog each morning. E around 5kts becoming SE Wednesday.

Wednesday night-Thursday...Lowering to MVFR and eventually IFR
Thursday morning in showers and fog. SE 5-10kts.

Thursday night...Improving to MVFR in showers. ENE 5kts.

Friday...Improving to VFR. NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA conditions
tonight and Monday. Seas briefly reaching 3-5 ft in the outer
waters this evening and early tonight, then decrease.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft levels
through Thursday. Seas begin to increase late Thursday night in
southeasterly swell ahead of next surface low.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...LaFlash/Buster
Marine...LaFlash/Buster