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518
FXUS61 KCAR 121333
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
933 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upper level low pressure will remain over the region
today. High pressure will build south of the region on Thursday.
A cold front will cross the area Friday followed by high
pressure Saturday into Sunday. High pressure will shift south
of the area on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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933AM Update...No major changes to the forecast for this
update. Looking into thunderstorms producing heavy rain this
afternoon.

previous discussion
Upper level low pressure drifts east toward the Canadian Maritimes
today. As it does so, expect showers and scattered afternoon
thunderstorms to develop. Shear is weak, thus not expecting any
organized storms. The bigger concern with any showers or storms that
develop today will be the potential for locally heavy downpours with
precipitable water values increasing to around an inch. The weak
wind field aloft favors slow moving showers and storms. The one
hour flash flood guidance is approximately 1.5" across the far
north, so will have to watch for the potential of any localized
flooding with any storms that develop. The upper low exits east
through the Canadian Maritimes late this afternoon into this
evening, this results in any showers and thunderstorms tapering
off by early this evening. Short wave ridging builds in tonight
with partly to mostly cloudy skies and patchy fog. Highs today
will range from the low to mid 70s inland away from the coast.
Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to near 60.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Thursday morning upr low that has been plaguing the region
will be lifting into the Maritimes. Heights will be rising
during the day with temps climbing above normal toward the
80-degree mark over most inland locations. Winds will be out of
the southwest most of the day before backing around to the south
late in the afternoon.

Digging H5 trof will be approaching Thursday night with moisture
moving back in from the south. Patchy fog and drizzle looks to move
in from the waters shortly after midnight with marine layer possibly
penetrating as far north as Houlton during the nighttime hours. Min
temps will be warm over the region in srly flow and extensive cloud
cover with majority of the area in the lower 60s while southeastern
zones expected to dip into the m/u 50s.

Cold front will still be back to our west by 12z Friday with showers
ongoing acrs the north by daybreak. Given ongoing precip across the
north and west in the morning think best chance for thunder Friday
afternoon will be south of a Moosehead to Caribou line with the main
threat being gusty winds with any storm that can get strong
enough given 0-6km shear between 40-50kts and low-lvl lapse
rates around 6.5 C/km. Strong storm threat depends on how
unstable airmass can get once the low stratus and fog burns off
and ultimately the location of cold front.

Fropa occurs Friday night with cooler and drier air sweeping in
behind. Temps will drop into the middle 40s over the North Woods but
winds look to remain well-mixed during the overnight hours. Cannot
rule out an isold storm early over Downeast as front pushes
offshore. Showers should wind down by the end of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upr trof will be crossing the area on Saturday but airmass looks to
be too dry for much in the way of clouds, let alone any showers.
Temps on Saturday will be below normal across the north and around
normal over Downeast. This will likely be the coolest of the next 7
days.

H5 high pressure will be located over the southeastern U.S. with
ridge axis shifting east into CWA Sunday night into Monday. Warming
trend will take place early next week with highs toward the middle
of the week up into the 80s. Next Wednesday majority of
deterministic guidance and their ensembles have H8 temps increasing
to +20C.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR this morning with isolated to scattered showers,
then numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms developing
this afternoon with locally MVFR or lower possible in any
heavier showers. Mentioned VCTS in the TAF for the sites north
of Bangor. Patchy fog will locally reduce visibilities to
MVFR/IFR tonight. S to SE wind 5 to 10 kt through tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday...VFR. SW 5-15kts.

Thursday night...VFR diminishing to MVFR in rain showers over
northern Aroostook terminals and IFR over Downeast terminals in low
cigs and fog. S 5-10kts.

Friday...MVFR/IFR in showers with thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon. SW 5-15kts with gusts to 20kts in the afternoon.

Friday night...MVFR early then improving to VFR late. NW 5-10kts.

Saturday-Sunday...VFR. NW 5-10kts.
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&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas remain below SCA levels through tonight.
Patchy fog reduces visibility to 1 to 3 NM this morning and
again tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels until
Friday morning before southerly winds increase over the outer
waters with marginal gusts into Friday afternoon. Seas will
increase to 5ft in southerly swell Friday into Friday night
before diminishing below small craft levels. No headlines
expected through the weekend. Visibilities will be reduced in
fog Thursday night and again Friday night ahead of cold front
moving through.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/LaFlash
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...TWD/LaFlash/Buster
Marine...TWD/LaFlash/Buster