-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
204
FXUS61 KGYX 241417
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1017 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A distant ocean storm continues to bring large waves to the
nearshore waters today, with dangerous rip currents continuing.
These will continue into Wednesday, but will gradually start to
lower tomorrow. A narrow ridge of high pressure continues to
build into New England through the middle of the week, with dry
weather and seasonable temperatures. Then later in the week we
will see a more widespread chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/..
1015 AM...Changes were mainly made to sky cover to keep things
on the sunnier side through most of the afternoon, but will
eventually see stratocu move from the east, and cirrus from SE
later in the day.

6:40am Update... No notable changes with this update, mostly
just fitting temps to trends so far this morning. Patchy fog has
developed with the overnight radiational cooling, and is
drifting around a bit in the northeasterly flow. This fog is
expected to burn off over the next few hours with mainly sunny
skies expected for a few hours afterwards.

Previous...

Today looks quite similar to yesterday, with a ridge of high
pressure extending southwestward into New England, but clouds
moving through the ridge from a system in the Great Lakes. The
day starts off with mainly sunny skies, but high clouds begin to
increase from the southwest by the early afternoon. Overall the
clouds look a bit thinner than yesterday, so the day overall
looks to be a bit brighter and a few degrees warmer with highs
mostly in the mid 60s. A stray sprinkle can`t be ruled out, but
measurable rainfall is not expected.

Wave heights have come down slightly since yesterday, but
continue to bring dangerous rip currents through the day south
of Portland. For this reason, a rip current statement has been
issued for the high rip risk today. Astronomical tides continue
to lower, with water levels at high tides expected to run about
a half foot lower than yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Thin cloud cover through the evening hours should allow temps
to drop quickly through the evening. Clouds then begin to
thicken more after midnight, slowing the drop in temperatures,
and occuring first across southern areas. There is likely to be
quite a bit of variation in temps at times tonight with
scattered breaks in the clouds, but lows overall are expected to
fall into the 40s overnight. Southern areas also start to see a
bit more moisture move back in as the easterly flow gradually
becomes slightly more southerly. This introduces the chance for
some isolated light showers and sprinkles towards daybreak.

Tomorrow looks to feature mainly cloudy skies as the system
near the Great Lakes gradually makes more progress eastward. A
stray sprinkle is possible throughout the day, but the chance
for showers begins to increase more across western areas late in
the day as some broken shower activity begins to approach the
area. Any more meaningful precip holds off until after dark
tomorrow, but will likely start to reach far western areas by
sunset.

With the clouds and sprinkles, tomorrow looks a bit cooler
overall with highs ranging from the upper 50s north to mid 60s
toward the coast. Rip currents are still a concern tomorrow, but
waves are expected to very slowly continuing to lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models still in fairly good agreement that 500 MB trough dice
equatorward through ON Wed and Wed night, then closes off over S
QC on Thursday and crosses N ME Thursday night, which will
bring showers to the region, most prevalent Wed night into Thu.
By Friday it should be clearing, with a day of cooler air, but
still around normal, before a ridge develops Sunday and hold
through early next week. This ridge will also provide some above
normal temps to the region.

On Wed, will see increasing clouds, although in the W zones it
may end being mostly cloudy all day, while the further E you go
the better chance you have for more sun in the morning. Cant
rule out a few afternoon showers in the mtns as the trough
deepens to the E, and some WAA starts to move in, but the bulk
of the rain holds until Wed evening. Highs will generally range
from the low 60s in the N to the mid to upper 60s in the S.

Wed night into Thu will be the best chance for rain in the CWA
as a wave moves in to the base of that trough just to our N and
closed it off. The dynamics will be combined with WAA aloft on
Wed night, and then a cold front will follow on Thursday. So
showers move across Wed night with maybe a break short break
early Thu, followed by another round of showers with cold front
late morning into the afternoon. Total QPF Wed night through Thu
ranges from about a third of an inch in srn NH to near a half
inch in central ME and the mid coast, to maybe three quarters of
inch in parts of the mtns. Lows Wed night should wet bulb into
the low to mid 50s, with highs on Thursday generally in the low
to mid 60s, but could see a run at 70 in S NH where, some
clearing is possible mid to late afternoon. Some showers linger
in the E zones Thu evening, but should see clearing outside the
mtns after midnight with lows 50-55.

There could be some light showers or sprinkles in the mtns
Friday morning as wave tracks around the W side of the 500 MB
and maybe partly sunny skies, but should see clearing by Friday
afternoon with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. The weekend into
Monday should be mainly sunny and dry with highs in the upper
60s to mid 70 and lows from about 45-55.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...IFR to LIFR at CON, LEB, and HIE clears by mid-
morning today, with a return to VFR for the rest of the day.
These areas have the chance for fog and restrictions again
tonight. At other terminals, VFR conditions prevail through the
evening tonight. Then after midnight, MVFR ceilings are likely
across southern and coastal terminals. These likely expand to
all other terminals during the morning tomorrow.

Long Term...VFR expected Wed, although flight restrictions are
likely by late Wed night through much of Thursday, in rain and
low cigs. The restrictions will likely linger in the mtns and at
KAUG and KRKD Thu night, but should see a return to VFR
everywhere Friday morning, with VFR through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions continue outside of the sheltered
bays today as a distant ocean storm continues to send waves into
the Gulf of Maine. High pressure continues to gradually build
southward across the waters through tomorrow. SCA conditions
continue with waves greater than 5ft from Port Clyde southward
tomorrow.

Long Term...5-6 ft seas will continue through Thu, but should
then subside Thu night, with no SCA criteria expected through
the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023-
     024.
NH...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ152>154.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Cempa
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...