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323
FXUS63 KJKL 241854
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
254 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Heat and humidity return for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Next best chance of rain will be Wednesday into Wednesday
  evening.

- Hotter weather is expected to make a comeback by Friday and
  Saturday, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and heat
  index values around 100 degrees.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 254 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2024

The surface high in place today will push east tonight and mid-level
ridging will build poleward some tonight. This will aid in paving
the way for clear skies and calm conditions to the area tonight.
Given this is expect reasonable ridge/valley splits of up to 10
degrees are expected tonight. There will also be mainly river
valley fog setting up later tonight into Tuesday morning. Tuesday,
the mid-level ridge will peak across the Ohio Valley. There will
be some high clouds from upstream system that the HREF is showing
and therefore will undercut the NBM operational forecast afternoon
highs slightly, which seemed overdone. Even so, we will see upper
80s to lower 90s by Tuesday afternoon. Right now, the NBM keeps
it dry for Tuesday and with ridging this seems reasonable.
However, some CAMs show a small chance (less than 15 percent) of
activity from overnight convection making it into parts of
Kentucky. This will have to be watched as this will be more a
mesoscale feature which are difficult for models to latch onto at
this point. Tuesday night, more clouds will push southward as the
ridge breaks down and trough pulls east. The guidance is showing
a fair amount of uncertainty on when and where we will see rain
on Tuesday night given again the more mesoscale nature of this
activity. For now, keeping close to the NBM, with areas generally
north of the Mountain Parkway seeing around a 15 to 30 percent
chance of rain and thunderstorms mainly in the early morning hours
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2024

A rather active long-term forecast period is expected as there`s
going to be a shift in overall synoptic pattern. The first of a
handful of disturbances is expected to bring a cold front into the
region Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. A couple small
perturbations revolving around a parent trough will favor surface
low development over the Great Lakes with a cold front extending
southwest through the Commonwealth. The SPC has given eastern
Kentucky a marginal risk of severe weather with this boundary as
FROPA is expected mid-day to maximize the potential for instability
building. Forecast soundings have decent severe weather indices in
place across the area. Decently steep low and mid level lapse rates
are in place, instability around 2,500 J/kg in the afternoon is
favorable, PW`s around 2.00" which if materialized could bring some
heavy rainfall but overall the most lacking parameter is the lack of
bulk shear across the region. Low shear values could limit the
overall strength of the storms but not really minimize the potential
for thunderstorms. Also, the potential for increased cloud cover
could limit the ability to increase instability which alone could
limit the coverage of the thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will taper
off from northwest to southeast through the overnight Wednesday but
an H850 shortwave is forecast to develop with a surface feature
riding along the departing cold front. The surface low will keep
shower and thunderstorm chances across the far eastern third of the
CWA through the day Thursday before the whole trough ejects to the
northeast.

Behind the exiting trough, height rises are forecast for
Friday morning. At the surface, high pressure will establish itself
and persist through the day Friday and half of Saturday before
another upper-level wave dives southeast out of western Canada and
approaches the Great Lakes dragging a cold front through the
Commonwealth from Saturday night through Sunday with another
perturbation providing a renewing shot of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday into Monday. High pressure will build back into the region
for the end of the period. Overall, the entire period will be
highlighted by multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with
high temperatures remaining in the mid-80s to low-90s and overnight
lows in the upper-60s to mid-70s.
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&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2024

High pressure at the surface will keep the period mostly VFR.
There is a cumulus field that is set up across the area leading
to cloud bases around 3 to 4 kft. Outside this we could see a
little mist or fog tonight in the valleys mainly, but this could
develop at SME/LOZ later tonight in the MVFR range. However, this
will lift around 12z to 13Z Tuesday and VFR conditions will be the
story for the remainder of the period. The winds will be out of
the north and west through the afternoon generally 5 knots or less
and will become calm this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...DJ