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615
FXUS64 KLZK 171743
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1243 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

To begin the period, high pressure is currently centered just to the
east of the state...this will continue to provide southerly flow
into the area. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across a good portion of the state through the afternoon and evening
hours today. The best chance for these storms will be over central
and southern locations. CAMs are showing a typical summer-like pop-
up storms where some areas could see half an inch or higher in
accumulation where areas down the road may not see anything at all.
The chance for severe weather is low at this time, however, a few
strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The main hazard
with these storms would be hail and damaging wind gusts.

A slight "cooldown" is expected Monday and Tuesday compared to where
temperatures have been the last few days. Highs are expected to be
in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Humidity will make heat index values
feel slightly higher. Overnight low temperatures are expected to
drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The period will begin with a large ridge of high pressure gradually
building over Arkansas. Temperatures will start off close to
seasonal on Wednesday, but above to well above average readings are
in the forecast thereafter. Afternoon heat indices do not look
horrible and are generally below triple digits given dewpoints in
the lower to mid 60s. Relative humidities will bottom out between 30
and 40 percent, and vegetation will dry out more quickly.

Toward the end of the week, a strong storm system will track from
the central Plains to the upper Midwest. The system will try to drag
a cold front toward Arkansas, but the front will have difficulty
penetrating through the ridge. Even so, moisture will increase a bit
ahead of the front, and this may result in isolated afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms next weekend. Heat index values may approach
100 degrees in places on Saturday, and range from 100 to 105 degrees
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening over
mainly the eastern and central terminals and are expected to wane
shortly after sunset. Widespread VFR conditions are expected
except in and near convection where brief MVFR conditions will be
possible. Winds are expected to remain out of the south to
southeast and may be gusty in and around convection but otherwise
remain around 10 mph.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Batesville AR     85  72  86  70 /  50  10  30   0
Camden AR         91  71  86  70 /  50  20  30   0
Harrison AR       89  70  86  67 /  20  10  30   0
Hot Springs AR    86  71  87  70 /  40  30  30   0
Little Rock   AR  87  75  87  73 /  50  10  20   0
Monticello AR     91  72  87  72 /  70  20  20   0
Mount Ida AR      89  70  87  68 /  30  20  30   0
Mountain Home AR  88  71  86  69 /  20  10  30   0
Newport AR        86  73  87  72 /  50  10  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     89  72  87  71 /  60  10  20   0
Russellville AR   86  72  88  71 /  30  10  30   0
Searcy AR         86  72  87  71 /  60  10  20   0
Stuttgart AR      88  73  86  73 /  60  10  20   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...56