-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
127
FXUS66 KMTR 192056
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
156 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1259 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Trough pattern slowly degrades as a ridge builds late this week.
Warming trend through the end of the week into the weekend. Above
average temps by the weekend.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1259 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Cooler temps today with ample sunshine across the area...unless
you live between Half Moon Bay and the Marin Headlands, or Bodega
Bay. Really a "blue sky day" these next couple of days with
little-to-no weather-related impacts immediately apparent.
Stratus in the mornings and clear for most in the afternoons. The
next couple of days will be great to do some outdoor activities
and get some chores done ahead of the weekend if you`re sensitive
to heat.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1259 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Guidance continues to provide high confidence in a building ridge
through into the weekend. Not a stout, high amplitude ridge by any
means, but 500 mb heights rise through the next several days
providing a gradual warm up through the latter half of the week.
By Saturday we are looking at afternoons highs in the lower 100s
for inland locations such as interior Monterey/San Benito, eastern
Alameda and Contra Costa, and northern Napa and Sonoma counties.
Other locations look to range from the lower 80s to lower 90s with
60s to lower 70s along the coast. A spread of minor to moderate
HeatRisk across the area Saturday, so will likely need some heat
highlights...will evaluate where those are needed in the coming
shifts.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR through the afternoon for terminals with breezy onshore winds
generally out of the W/NW. Not expecting much in the way of gusts
this afternoon at coastal terminals like previous days, though the
occasional gust cannot be ruled out. Stratus begins to push inland
in the early evening for Monterey and SF bay terminals, bringing
MVFR CIGs that last through sunrise of Thursday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the early evening today with moderate
W/NW winds, gusts nearing 25 kt possible. Stratus returns in the
evening as winds begin to ease. MVFR CIGs are expected to last
through sunrise Thursday morning. A few models suggest CIGs
lowering overnight to become IFR, however, highest confidence is
in CIGs maintaining MVFR through the night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts through the early evening.
Towards the 03-06Z timeframe, expecting stratus to begin advecting
inland bringing MVFR CIGs. Moderate confidence on CIGs lowering to
become IFR in the early morning of Thursday, as dry air aloft
(visible in Wednesday KOAK 12Z sounding) may help to compress and
"sink" the cloud layer. Regardless, stratus and low CIGs persist
through the late morning of Thursday. Clearing to VFR is not
expected until well beyond sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1109 AM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024

  Northwest winds increase again late this afternoon across the
northern waters, remaining gusty through the weekend and into the
next work week. Significant wave heights stay around 6-8 feet,
will build back up to 10-12 feet towards the end of the the
weekend as larger northwesterly swell returns.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Friday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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