-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
704
FXUS61 KOKX 242129
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
529 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens over the region through Wednesday as a frontal
system approaches from the west. Its associated warm front lifts
though the region Wednesday night into early Thursday, followed by a
cold front Thursday night. High pressure builds to the north Friday
and then remains into the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated for current conditions, with no significant changes.

Mostly cloudy for tonight with a low level easterly flow
combined with increasing moisture in the mid levels ahead of an
approaching weak system to our west. It will be dry for the most
part, but a few showers may sneak into the western zones late
tonight. NBM was used for low temperatures, but adjusted upward
a little over parts of Long Island with the anticipation of a
mostly cloudy sky and persistent easterly flow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cloudy through the period with rain chances generally trending
upward slowly across the area. The better chances will be during
Wednesday night with a warm front passing through, and the
probabilities will be highest north and west of the city. Models
showing some elevated instability, but will leave out the
mention of thunder as shortwave lift doesn`t look particularly
strong, and mid level lapse rates will be unfavorable with a
longwave ridge aloft still nearby. Cloudy otherwise through the
short term forecast. Blended NBM 25th and 50th percentiles for
high temps due to the cloud cover. Highs only in the 60s for
most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A northern stream upper trough closes off and moves across the
upper midwest and southern Canada into northern New England
Thursday into Thursday night. An associated frontal system,
first a warm front Thursday morning, then a cold front late
Thursday into Thursday night, moves across the region and brings
chances of precipitation. The best chances will be across the
northern tier. There will be some surface based CAPE and
instability, along with some shear, for a chance of
thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night. Precipitation
may linger just to the south and west of the region Friday into
Saturday evening until an upper ridge builds eastward.

The high amplitude ridge builds between the northern offshore
closed low and another closed low that remains nearly stationary
over the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday and Sunday. This
ridge and associated high pressure to the north will bring a
period of dry weather Saturday night through Monday. The upper
ridge weakens early next week and the southern closed low begins
to move northward and may bring chances of precipitation back
into the region for Tuesday.

Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal Thursday and
Friday, and then near seasonal normals Saturday into the
beginning of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control through today. A frontal
system approaches tomorrow.

Mainly VFR expected today though low stratus could lead to temporary
MVFR conditions occasionally. While things have scattered out for
now from this morning, its still worth keeping an eye on. More
widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to move into most terminals
after 00-03Z tonight. MVFR will hold all tomorrow. There is a
possibility for IFR starting tomorrow morning at city terminals and
terminals north and west, but too low confidence to include in the
TAFs.

Spotty/sparse coverage of SHRA may approach the terminals from the
west on Wednesday, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs
at this time. It may be too dry for SHRA to develop or become
impactful.

E-NE winds around 10 kt today. An occasional gust of 15 to 20 kt is
possible into the early evening hours. Winds will drop below 10 kt
tonight, then increase tomorrow 10-15 kts with gusts peaking near 20
kts.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled amendments possible for changing flight categories due
to marginal MVFR cigs.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower cond
throughout, but mainly after midnight at KISP/KGON. Slight chance of
a tstm in the evening from the NYC metros north/west.

Thursday: Chance of mainly morning showers/MVFR cond, otherwise VFR.

Friday - Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No changes to winds and seas with this update.

Long period easterly swells from a slowly departing offshore
low will to continue to produce advisory level seas on the ocean
through Wednesday night with waves possibly remaining near 5
feet through Thursday evening as swells diminish. SCA has been
extended through Wednesday night for the time being. For
Thursday night, ocean seas likely fall below 5 feet as the
swells continue to diminish and as a northerly flow develops
behind a frontal system. Sub advisory levels will then continue
through the weekend. For the non ocean waters winds and seas
will remain below advisory levels Thursday through the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
The afternoon high tides along the Long Island south shore have
passed and waters levels have receded below minor flooding
benchmarks. Additional coastal flooding is not anticipated
beyond this high time cycle.

The high risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday
evening at all the ocean beaches, and through Thursday evening
at the Suffolk County beaches. There is a moderate risk Thursday
at the New York City and Nassau ocean beaches. Offshore low
pressure southeast of Long Island was still producing long
period E/SE swells across the waters. These swells will be
lowering late Thursday and continue lowering Thursday night and
Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday afternoon for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BR/MW
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MET