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863
FXUS61 KRLX 191804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
204 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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The heat wave continues throughout the week courtesy of a broad
upper level ridge. A cold front arrives late Sunday night into
Monday, with showers and storms, and somewhat cooler weather.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Mid-upper level ridging across the area and beyond, oriented from
west-southwest to east-northeast, and centered near NJ, continues
the hot, dry weather. A weak short wave trough riding across
the eastern Great Lakes and into the northeastern states, along
the north-northwest side of the ridge, flattens it, eventuating
the formation of a second center over the lower Ohio Valley on
Thursday.

The ridge should hold strong enough to keep afternoon convection
associated with the short wave trough this afternoon, and
another Thursday afternoon, just northwest of the forecast area
in Ohio. Otherwise, high clouds associated with the first short
wave trough are forecast to stream eastward with it, crossing
the area through tonight, and then exiting the area on Thursday.

Gradient low level south to southeast flow actually increases a
bit tonight on the west side of surface high pressure, but
should not impact the surface wind forecast much outside of
ridges. Gradient flow then subsides on Thursday in a col between
the high to the east, and another forming over the lower Ohio
Valley.

Drying associated with downslope flow this afternoon should be
minimal Thursday given the lighter and more variable low level
flow. Temperatures, dew points and apparent temperatures should
be similar both afternoons, although middle Ohio Valley
temperatures may be a notch or two higher Thursday with mid-
upper level ridging more directly overhead. This may be enough
to nudge apparent temperatures into the upper 90s there,
otherwise mid 90s should cover it for the lowlands this and
Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures are forecast to come closest to record highs
across our northern official climate sites PKB, CKB and EKN,
this and Thursday afternoon, the latter for which the forecast
calls for a record high there of 91, breaking the current
record of 89 set in 1905, so long as high clouds do not increase
there too much. Refer to the CLIMATE section below.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Wednesday...

The upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will remain
over the area through the end of the week, keeping the CWA hot
and dry for the most part. Highs on Thursday will be in the
mid-90s for most lower elevation locations, though dry air
mixing down will likely help keep heat index values under 100F.
Much of the area will be a few degrees hotter for Friday and
Saturday, and heat index values may get above 100F in many
locations, while a few spots could see air temps hit 100F.
Regardless, it will be quite hot, and with the expectation that
overnight lows will not dip below 70F for much of the lower
elevations each night, the heat stress to public health and
power infrastructure will continue to compound across the area.
Thus the Advisory will remain in place, and at some we will need
to contemplate an extension to Saturday.

A few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible Friday
and Saturday in the afternoon and evening hours, primarily over
the higher terrain and in north-central WV. Whatever develops
will be garden variety airmass convection, as very light winds
aloft will provide no shear for storm organization or
longevity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Wednesday...

Ridge finally starts to break down on Sunday, as low pressure moves
east across the Great Lakes region, eventually sweeping a cold front
through the area at the start of the long term period. Showers and
thunderstorms will become more numerous on Sunday with the approach
of this system, and an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be
ruled out Sunday and Sunday evening/night. Frontal boundary will
move east of the area on Monday, for drier conditions, as well as a
welcome reprieve from the oppressive heat. Weather beyond Monday is
uncertain at this point, but general consensus at this point is to
maintain mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Wednesday...

High pressure surface and aloft maintains the heat dome over the
area amid light flow. Guidance suggests dense fog at EKN
overnight into early Thursday morning, but not so much at CKB.
Otherwise, a VFR forecast is in store.

Light and variable flow surface and aloft, mainly south to
southeast through tonight, becomes light and variable to calm
on Thursday, in a col over the area as high pressure splits up
into two centers.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog could develop again at CKB overnight
tonight. Conversely, it may happen to a lesser extent than
forecast at EKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
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As of 325 AM Wednesday...

A heat wave continues through the weekend. Temperatures
are forecast to approach record highs at some locations on
several days.

The records for Wednesday, June 19 to Sunday, June 23 are
listed below for our official climate sites, along with the
current forecast values.

           Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
     Wednesday, 6/19 | Thursday, 6/20 |  Friday, 6/21  |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 92 / 98 (1919) | 93 / 99 (1931) | 95 /105 (1931) |
HTS | 93 / 98 (1994) | 94 /100 (1931) | 95 / 99 (1953) |
CKB | 92 / 94 (1994) | 92 / 94 (1931) | 93 / 98 (1953) |
PKB | 93 / 95 (1994) | 94 / 97 (1931) | 96 / 97 (1953) |
BKW | 86 / 90 (1944) | 87 / 92 (1931) | 88 / 93 (1953) |
EKN | 91 / 89 (1905) | 91 / 92 (1931) | 91 / 92 (1953) |
--------------------------------------------------------
      Saturday, 6/22 |  Sunday, 6/23  |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 97 / 98 (1988) | 94 /100 (1929) |
HTS | 99 / 98 (1988) | 96 /100 (1930) |
CKB | 96 / 97 (1923) | 92 / 96 (1957) |
PKB | 98 / 98 (1988) | 93 / 94 (1964) |
BKW | 92 / 92 (1931) | 89 / 91 (1931) |
EKN | 94 / 93 (1923) | 90 / 89 (1899) |
---------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may
be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus
the all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |     97     |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |     98     |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |     95     |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |     98     |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |     91     |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |     93     |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM

CLIMATE...TRM/JLB/GW