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041
FXUS61 KRLX 221723
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
123 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry/hot today. Chances of showers/thunderstorms increase late
tonight through Wednesday, bringing possible beneficial
rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 119 PM Sunday...

After a cloudy and foggy start to the day in many spots, we can
expect full sunshine the rest of today. It will be an
unseasonably hot afternoon for the first official day of Fall
with high temperatures expected to reach the lower 90s across
the lowlands and the mid 80s in the mountains. Relative humidity
will be low this afternoon, bottoming out at 30-40% across the
central WV lowlands and southeast OH. However, light and
variable winds should mitigate the fire threat today.

High cirrus clouds will approach from the west by late this
afternoon and this evening ahead of another low pressure system.
A wave of 500-mb vorticity ahead of that low pressure system
will bring showers into the area from west to east beginning
mainly midnight, lasting through mid-morning Monday. Rain can
be heavy at times with some embedded thunder also possible. High
resolution models suggest that this batch of rain should be gone
by early Monday afternoon, with additional showers and
thunderstorms possible later in the day as another wave of mid-
level energy approaches. Severe weather is generally not
expected Monday afternoon with weak instability over our area.
Monday should be much cooler than today with more clouds than
sun. Highs should only reach the lower 80s in the lowlands and
the upper 70s in the mountains.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Sunday...

A moist airmass is forecast to be in place Monday through Tuesday as
the region sits in the open warm sector of a slow moving surface low
transiting the Mid-West. Diffluent flow aloft should allow for both
nocturnal elevated convection as well as diurnally enhanced surface
based storms Monday. Initially, deep layer shear will be on the
weaker so not expecting too much in the way of storm organization
Monday. The main threat with any activity will be locally heavy
downpours. While any rain would be largely beneficial, could see
some localized drainage issues over built up areas should one of
these downpours dwell too long.

Deep layer flow increases on Tuesday in response to the parent upper
trough approaching the region. Contingent on diurnal destabilization
could see a severe threat emerge for Tuesday afternoon with locally
damaging winds, and perhaps a low end tornado threat as the primary
hazards, most likely focused from the Metro Valley down the Tug
Fork, although confidence is low this far out.

Cold frontal passage is then expected Wednesday. At present this
looks to occur relatively early in the day and not yield as much of
a chance to destabilize diurnally.

Ensemble guidance is reasonably confident in the combination of this
activity to produce widespread beneficial rain, which should help
take the edge off very dry unsheltered fine fuels, even if it won`t
put much of a dent in our rainfall deficit. Interquartile 72hr
amounts ending Thursday morning range from around half an inch to
near 2 inches, highest in the northeast with our current
deterministic forecast generally falling in this range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Sunday...

Models are starting to come into slightly better agreement for
the extended period. A frontal boundary will stall near the area
for Wednesday and Wednesday night as an upper level low cuts
off over the central United States. This low will then interact
with a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, causing a
fujiwhara effect. This will sling the tropical system northward
and then northwestward, keeping the bulk of the system west of
our region. Models do show some outer bands moving into our
area and possibly evening stalling in our vicinity. Still way to
early to put stock in the timing and location of the outer band
moisture, but if this were to stall over the area, some heavy
rains would be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 108 PM Sunday...

Flight conditions have returned to VFR this afternoon at all
terminals after a foggy morning in many spots. VFR should
continue the rest of today with light and variable winds.

Another low pressure system will slowly approach from the west
overnight. Showers will approach from west to east beginning at
04Z Monday morning and ceilings will lower to MVFR or IFR in
most terminals. In addition, patchy dense fog is also expected
at KEKN from 06-14Z with VLIFR VISBY restrictions. Fog should
dissipate at KEKN by around 14Z.

MVFR ceilings will linger into Monday afternoon and through the
end of the TAF period. Expect westerly winds at 4-8 knots
Monday, occasionally gusting to 10 knots at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of low ceilings and patchy dense fog
overnight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMC