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047
FXUS61 KAKQ 200601
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
201 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the northern Mid Atlantic coast slowly shifts
south through the end of the week. A seasonably warm and dry
pattern will continue through Friday, before an extended period
of hot weather commences this weekend and continues into next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Seasonably warm temperatures are expected today.

~1030mb sfc high pressure is centered well offshore of the Mid-
Atlantic coast early this morning with a 598dm upper high from
nrn MD to NJ. It`s actually quite comfortable now with temps
mostly in the 60s, although it will get very hot in a few days.
The ridge axis at the sfc and aloft will continue to gradually
shift south today and tonight and will be over srn VA and NC by
late tonight. The flow will still be onshore (SE) today leading
to temps only a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
Forecast highs are in the lower 90s inland with 80s near the
immediate coast. Temps should drop off into the 60s tonight with
the ridge axis still nearby.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Turning warmer and a little more humid for Friday.

- Turning hot on Saturday.

The heat will start to build on Friday as the sfc and upper
ridge axis shift to our south, leading to the warmer 850mb temps
currently over the Ohio Valley to move over the middle
Atlantic. Winds become more southerly across inland areas on
Friday, while remaining SSE near the immediate coast. Forecast
highs are in the mid 90s in central VA with upper 80s-lower 90s
closer to the coast and in NE NC. Dew points will be a little
bit higher on Fri (mid 60s) but max heat indices should remain a
few degrees below 100F.

By Saturday, temperatures will really start to heat up and dew
pts will be on the rise as well. Statistical guidance is
supporting high temperatures in the mid-upper 90s to even 100
degrees across inland areas for Sat afternoon (high confidence),
with low-mid 90s near the coast and upper 80s to 90 degrees at
the beaches. When factoring in dew pts in the mid 60s inland to
around 70 coast, this gives heat index values in the low 100s.
Although these values will fall short of Heat Advisory criteria
(105+ deg), it will still set the stage for a hot weekend
overall and a heat wave that lasts through next week. No rain
is expected through the short term period either.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat index values of 105F or greater on Sunday.

- A weakening frontal system may bring isolated to widely scattered
showers or storms on Sun night into Tuesday, but the confidence in
widespread rainfall remains low.

-Flash Drought conditions developing.

The main story this weekend will be the heat as the ridge axis
becomes more suppressed to our south and the low-level flow becomes
SSW area-wide, which will lead to even warmer 850mb temps/low-level
thicknesses. Sunday looks to be the hottest day of the period
with forecast highs around 100F across central VA with mid-upper
90s near the coast. While the recent dry weather will help to
keep dew pts a bit lower than they could be (mid 60s-lower 70s),
heat index values of 105F+ are likely on Sunday. These
conditions will likely warrant a Heat Advisory for much of the
area on Sunday. Other than a chance for isolated to widely
scattered tstms Sun evening-Sun night, the dry wx will continue.
Confidence for temps on Monday is lower than the weekend due to
the potential for scattered tstms (mainly during the latter
part of the day) and more clouds as a weakening frontal system
approaches. Highs Monday will most likely be a few degrees lower
than they will be on Sunday. Still seasonably hot with lower
precip chances on Tuesday as the weakening front washes out
near/over the area.

Regardless of any tstm chances in the forecast, it still does not
look promising for widespread rainfall, as many places will see
little to no rain through the period. In fact, 13z NBM
probabilities for at least 0.50" of total rainfall from Sun-Tue
are only 10-40% over the local area. This will only exacerbate
the recent dry conditions and set us up for what can be
considered a "flash drought". More information on this can be
found on CPC`s Probabilistic Hazards Outlook page at
www.ncep.cpc.noaa.gov or drought.gov.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Primarily VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours.
Patchy fog may try to develop early this morning at
primarily SBY and potentially PHF, but this should result in
minimal (if any) operational impacts. Any fog that develops will
dissipate by 11-12z. Similar conditions today compared to
yesterday with FEW-SCT cumulus developing by the late morning.
Winds will primarily be out of the SE, ranging from 5 to 10
knots.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday
as high pressure remains centered off the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected through most of this week. A few
gusts to 20 kt will be possible in the afternoon/evening hours this
week.

- Moderate rip current risk at all areas beaches.

- Seas and winds become elevated later Sunday and Monday as a trough
swings through.

Winds are east/southeasterly around 8-12kt early this afternoon. As
is typical with the summer pattern we are experiencing right now
with high pressure situated over the region, there could be some
slight enhancement to wind speeds during the afternoon hours. Gusts
to 20kt will be possible, especially in the lower Bay and along area
rivers where evening sea breezes become more established. Seas are 2-
3ft with waves in the Bay of 1-2ft, though there could be spots in
the lower Bay of 2-3ft when the winds pick up in the afternoon.

Winds are expected to become more southerly Friday and into Saturday
as the high pressure slides further south. The southerly flow
becomes more robust later Saturday and Sunday as a trough approaches
from the west and drops through the local area on Monday. Small
Craft Advisories may be needed during this timeframe, especially
later Sunday into early Monday if the current trends persist. Seas
will also increase to 3-4ft across the southern waters on Sunday
with northern coastal waters building to 4-6ft. Waves in the Bay
will increase to 2-3ft as well. These elevated seas and waves look
to gradually subside later Monday and return to 2-3ft by Tuesday.
Our first rain/storm chances may come Sunday afternoon into Monday
as the trough swings through, though activity looks to be scattered
as of now.

Rip current risk is moderate at all beaches today with SE swell
energy and 2-3 ft nearshore waves. Periods increase to around 8 sec
Thursday with waves at the beaches remaining around 3 ft, suggesting
a continuing moderate rip risk. An elevated rip risk likely
continues through the upcoming weekend (highest threat across the
north).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/JDM/MRD
LONG TERM...ERI/JDM/MRD
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...JKP