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007
FXUS63 KBIS 270632
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
132 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Numerous severe thunderstorms (risk level 3 out of 5) are
  likely across the western third of the state late Thursday
  afternoon into Thursday night. Expected hazards include very
  large hail up to tennis ball size, damaging winds as high as 80
  mph, and a few tornadoes.

- Scattered severe thunderstorms (risk level 1 of 5) are
  possible across central ND, including the James River Valley,
  Thursday night. Expected hazards include large hail up to the
  size of ping pong balls and damaging winds as high as 70 mph.

- Below normal temperatures Friday through Sunday, with highs
  only in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Saturday.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms are favored to
  return early next week. A few storms may be severe.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The most notable change to the near term forecast for this update
was to delay the start time of PoPs in south central North Dakota
until closer to 3 to 4 AM CDT. Timing detail was also added to PoPs
through Thursday night, accounting for the risk of severe
storms.

UPDATE
Issued at 943 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

No major changes were needed for this update as quiet weather
continues. We are still expecting low to medium chances (20 to
40 percent) for some warm air advection showers and
thunderstorms late tonight/early Thursday morning, first across
the southwest or south central and then spreading into the James
River Valley and maybe up into the Devil`s Lake Basin.

UPDATE
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

It`s a quiet evening weather wise across western and central
North Dakota. No major changes were needed for this update.
Just blended in the latest observations to the going forecast.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Before the severe weather threat Thursday, expect mostly quiet
conditions through tonight as CAMs continue backing off on
precipitation. However, with sufficient lower level moisture
and WAA expected, still wouldn`t be surprised if a few showers
and thunderstorms develop late tonight mainly in the southwest
and south central. These thunderstorms are not expected to be
severe, although with instability increasing towards 1000 J/kg
Thursday morning and with adequate shear, a strong storm or two
is possible Thursday morning. A few additional sub-severe
showers and thunderstorms may develop in the northwest and north
central during the early afternoon before the primary threat.

In the late afternoon and evening on Thursday is when the
primary severe weather threat develops. Deepening surface low
pressure over southeastern and possibly into northeastern
Wyoming, along with high pressure over the Great Lakes Region,
will advect very moist air into the state. With the surface high
progged to be a bit further east than even a couple days ago,
this moist air should advect into most of the state rather than
just the west, which will help maintain instability into the
overnight hours east of Highway 83. Resulting mixed layer
dewpoints are progged to reach the low 60s. This will
contribute to a very buoyant atmosphere. Encroaching shortwave
energy off upper low pressure over southern Alberta, along with
a warm or occluding surface frontal boundary associated with
the aforementioned surface low, will help trigger storms
Thursday afternoon.

CAMs are pretty consistent that initial convection associated
with the severe threat is likely to develop in the eastern half
of Montana during the earlier afternoon. Initially, a few
discrete storms might develop. After which, models highly favor
a cluster or line developing. The supercellular period is the
most favorable period of time where all threats are on the table
with the potential for hail that is two inches or greater in
diameter, winds up to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes. We concur
with SPC that the highest risk for tornadic activity is between
approximately 6 pm CDT/5 pm MDT and 10 pm CDT/9 pm MDT. One of
the big questions in regard to whether western ND sees very
large hail or tornadic activity is where any supercells develop
before becoming a cluster/line. Some CAMs have them developing
in eastern Montana, while others have them developing in western
ND.

As storms quickly move eastward, CAMs suggest they weaken
somewhat rapidly especially once they are east of Highway 83.
That said, storms diminishing as quickly as the CAMs suggest
seems potentially a bit fast. While it`s true that instability
and shear decrease during the nighttime hours, they may remain
sufficient enough for a few severe thunderstorms to continue.
As a result, most locations east of Highway 83 are in a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) with the primary threats large hail up to
the size of ping pong balls and wind gusts up to 70 mph.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to persist Friday and into
Friday night, especially in the northern third of the state,
before drying out Saturday. More widespread showers and
thunderstorm may return to the forecast area early next week. A
few of these storms may become severe as well.

In regard to temperatures, expect a cooling trend into Saturday
where highs will be in the 60s for most of the state. A warming
trend is then favored for early next week, although uncertainty
on exactly how warm things become remains high at this time. Of
note, lows Friday night are expected to reach the 40s in the
west and north, while lows Saturday night are expected to reach
the 40s in most of the state.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The forecast period starts out with VFR conditions across western
and central North Dakota, with east-southeast winds around 10 kts.
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop from south to north Thursday
morning, mainly through central North Dakota, and will be
accompanied by an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
The morning shower and thunderstorm chances will shift northeast
this afternoon while MVFR ceilings remain over central and expand
into eastern North Dakota, with southeast winds increasing to
15-20 kts. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected late
Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, beginning in western
North Dakota then moving through central North Dakota. The most
severe storms could produce gusts up to 70 kts, but 45-55 kt
gusts will be more common with the main line of storms. Isolated
to scattered storms that develop ahead of the line in western
North Dakota during the late afternoon and early evening could
produce hail up to tennis ball size and a few tornadoes. Periods
of at least IFR visibility restrictions can be expected with
any storm.
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&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Hollan