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343
FXUS64 KFWD 191751
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1251 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/NEW/
/Through Thursday/

A band of light rain associated with Tropical Storm Alberto has
made its way into our southern zones and will continue slowly
moving west/northwest through the remainder of the day. Additional
isolated showers may develop as far north as the US-380 corridor,
but most locations will remain rain-free. Fortunately, the rather
dense cloud cover will keep temperatures confined to the 80s
areawide through the afternoon.

A relative lull in rain chances is expected overnight, but
additional showers are expected to develop across portions of
Central Texas Thursday morning through the afternoon. Unlike
today, this activity will remain rather isolated with most
locations missing out on any additional rainfall. Further north,
while a stray shower can`t be ruled out, the potential for any
development is quite low. A silent 10% PoP has been advertised for
much North Texas to reflect the low potential. Otherwise, a warmer
day is expected on Thursday with high temperatures in the mid 80s
to mid 90s.

Barnes
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&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 218 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

A mid level ridge centered over the Ohio Valley will build
southwest into North and Central Texas starting Thursday night,
providing hot, humid, and rain-free conditions for the weekend.
Another easterly wave will develop over the northwest Gulf and
move inland over Mexico and South Texas early next week.
Unfortunately, it will only increase dewpoints and heat indices
locally, while the ridge shuts off any convective attempts and
shunts all precipitation to our south.

Triple digit heat index values will begin on Saturday, and will
increase a little each afternoon Sunday through the first half of
next week. Heat Advisory criteria looks like a good bet starting
Monday, and conditions will only worsen Tuesday and next
Wednesday. Several spots may even reach or exceed Excessive Heat
Warning criteria (heat index 110 or greater) sometime around the
middle of next week. One potential source of relief may occur
Tuesday or next Wednesday as the ridge axis shifts west of the
forecast area, placing a northwest flow regime overhead. This
could bring a storm complex or two southeast into the area and
provide at least a temporary reprieve. Otherwise it looks like the
first week of astronomical summer will begin with a hot streak.

30

&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR ceilings will continue to blanket the region through the
afternoon. Winds will slightly vary between E and NE near 10 to
15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots. An area of rain is
moving northwest out of Central Texas and approaching the KACT
terminal. Additional isolated to scattered showers are expected to
develop across the region through the remainder of the day. The
potential for showers in the Metroplex is quite low, so VCSH was
not warranted in any of the D10 TAFs at this time. However, a
stray shower can`t be entirely ruled out.

A lull in rain chances is expected tonight, but additional showers
will develop across Central Texas tomorrow. Coverage will be much
more isolated compared to today, so VCSH was not included in the
KACT TAF at this time.

Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are expected again Thursday morning,
though they should be rather brief across North Texas. Winds will
be out of the east around 10 knots.

Barnes
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  77  93  76  94 /  20  20  10   0   0
Waco                84  75  91  74  92 /  30  30  20   5   5
Paris               86  74  92  72  93 /  10   5  10   0   0
Denton              89  75  93  73  94 /  20  10  10   0   0
McKinney            87  75  93  73  94 /  20  10  10   0   0
Dallas              89  77  93  76  94 /  20  20  10   0   0
Terrell             85  75  93  73  93 /  20  20  10   0   0
Corsicana           83  77  94  74  94 /  20  20  10   0   0
Temple              82  74  91  73  92 /  40  30  20   5   5
Mineral Wells       89  75  91  73  92 /  20  10  10   0   0
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$