-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
991
FXUS62 KILM 162337
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
737 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure just to our north should provide dry weather and
easterly winds for the first half of the week. A tropical
disturbance expected to remain to our south could spread a few
showers across the Carolinas Thursday or Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The subtropical ridge aloft is centered almost directly overhead
and should remain across eastern North Carolina on Monday. Beneath
this dome of sinking, warm air aloft, yesterday`s cold front is
dissipating across southern South Carolina and probably will
not be a trackable feature much longer. 1025 mb surface high
pressure centered across coastal New England will expand
southward along the East Coast and toward the Carolinas tomorrow
with easterly low level winds advecting a seasonable airmass
onshore.

Convective showers across eastern South Carolina this afternoon
have remained shallow, constrained by the subsidence inversion
and dry air in the ridge aloft. These showers should dissipate
by sunset with dry weather expected tonight into Monday.
Tonight`s lows are expected to fall into the upper 60s to near
70, except warmer along beaches where winds off the 80-degree
ocean water won`t cool much. With less cumulus around on Monday,
forecast highs are similar to today with a large coast-to-
inland gradient expected: low-mid 80s on the beaches to lower
90s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Looking unseasonably dry for mid-June through the short term
forecast period. An upper ridge centered near the NC-VA border
travels northward into the DelMarVa region by Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure offshore well to the northeast
brings in consistent ESE flow through the low- and mid-levels.
Despite that onshore flow, upper air remains remarkably dry,
with precipitable water values lingering near an inch, which is
roughly half an inch below normal for this time of year.

As a result, no rain in the forecast. Probably will have a few
cumulus clouds at 4000-5000ft, but that`s about it. Highs
Tuesday in the lower 90s inland, mid 80s at the coast. Lows each
night in the mid 60s inland, near 70 at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Simply copy the short term forecast and paste it for Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Things get a bit more interesting by
Thursday. For one, a trough way up in Canada helps push the
aforementioned ridge southward back towards the Carolinas,
eventually making its way back into the Deep South by the
weekend. The more important feature is a trough that is set to
develop northeast of the Bahamas by midweek, and push westward
into Florida by Thursday. It`s unclear exactly where in Florida
this thing lands, but regardless, it carries a large swath of
moisture with it. Clouds and rain chances on the rise by
Thursday and Friday. By the weekend, more intense heat settles
in, and temperatures escalate into the mid-to-upper 90s inland,
lower 90s at the coast. Dewpoints also hit the mid 70s, and
precipitable water skyrockets to near 2 inches. In other words,
hot and muggy conditions with daily shower and thunderstorm
chances return by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR to dominate this period, with the exception of possibly
periodic MVFR ceilings across the coastal terminals as low
level Atlantic moisture moves onshore late this evening or
during the pre-dawn Mon hrs. Could see SCT to possibly 2500
foot ceilings as a result. Have kept them predominate SCT in
the official TAFS attm. These clouds to possibly last until
the late Mon daytime morning hrs. Otherwise, Cu inland at the
5k foot or hier during Mon. With high pressure aloft resulting
in dry air aloft along with subsidence, this will keep a
convective lid across the Cu field over the local terminals
during Mon. Thus no pcpn being advertised. Onshore winds to
dominate this period, with winds becoming ESE-SE during Mon
aftn due to the resultant wind boundary pressing inland, aka
the sea breeze.

Extended Outlook...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Yesterday`s cold front has stalled across
southern South Carolina and is dissipating. High pressure
centered across coastal New England will expand southward down
the East Coast and toward the Carolinas on Monday, maintaining a
steady easterly wind 10-15 kt across our coastal waters.
Southeasterly swell plus easterly wind waves will combine to
produce sea heights around 3 feet, with local 4 foot wave
heights within 20 miles of shore near Frying Pan Shoals.

Monday Night through Friday...ENE winds take hold all the way
through Friday morning, with sustained speeds at 10-15kts and
gusts up to 20-22kts. Seas initially at 2-3ft build to 3-4ft
Tuesday, and then 3-5ft by Wednesday morning. By Wednesday
afternoon, 6ft waves come into play, where a Small Craft
Advisory is possible. This continues to build through Thursday,
where even 7ft waves are possible 20nm from shore. Things
finally start to subside Thursday night, and by Friday
afternoon, 10-15kt winds veer more southeasterly, and seas
drop back down to 3-4ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...TRA/IGB