-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
740
FXUS62 KRAH 220754
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
353 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will remain in control ahead of a weak upper
level trough that will move across the Middle Atlantic on Sunday. A
pre-frontal trough and weak cold front will move into NC Monday
afternoon and night, then lift northeastward across the Middle
Atlantic as a warm front Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Saturday...

...Hot with Heat Indices Topping Out In the Upper 90s to Lower
100s...

...Continued Dry...

Though weakening, central NC will remain under the influence of the
upper anticyclone/ridge as it retrogrades further west to the lower
MS Valley and srn Plains by early Sunday. The Atlantic surface high
will push farther east out into the Atlantic, with a pre-frontal
trough developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Low-level
thicknesses and humidity will steadily rise as the low-level flow
becomes increasingly southerly. Low-level thicknesses are forecast
to increase 5-7m from yesterday`s observed 1426m, which should yield
in max temps being ~2 degrees warmer than yesterday. Highs generally
in the mid 90s, which is 7-10 degrees above normal.

Afternoon humidity levels east of the Triangle will be higher than
recent days, with upper 60s to lower 70 dewpoints expected. This is
where heat indices are expected to top out into the upper 90s to
lower 100s. This level of heat, this early in the season when most
are not acclimated will pose a moderate risk for heat related
illnesses, especially those without effective cooling and those with
chronic diseases.

Rain chances will once again be limited to isolated sea-breeze
convection across the far SE zones. Dry elsewhere.

Warmer overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Saturday...

...Second Consecutive Day of Heat Indices Topping Out In the Upper
90s to Lower 100s...

...Rain chances return...


Broad upper level troughing will develop and extend south into the
area as the parent shortwave dives SEwd through the Great Lakes and
into the Northeast by Sunday night. Embedded disturbances are
progged to move through the mid-Atlantic, including NC, during the
afternoon and evening, with the convectively enhanced cold front
expected to move into the area overnight.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible from the afternoon
on, with chance PoPs continuing overnight, mainly across the
northern half of the forecast area. Given weak shear, severe storms
are not anticipated. Additionally, rainfall amounts are expected to
be light and/or fairly scattered. Thus, expect little to no relief
from the rapidly developing drought.

Low-level thicknesses level out, with high very comparable and in
some locations a few degrees cooler, owing to increasing
PWATs/moisture and associated rain chances. Highs in the lower to
mid 90s. The upper 60 to lower 70 dewpoints will be a little more
widespread, with heat indices again in the upper 90s NW to lower
100s along and east of US 1. It is strongly recommended to avoid
outdoor activities during the warmest part of the day and if
possible, stay in an air conditioned location. Additionally, elderly
are especially vulnerable to heat. Check on elderly often and make
sure they hydrate.

Lows generally in the mid 70s, which will provide little relief at
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 353 AM Saturday...

...Dangerously hot temperatures expected early to mid week...

As an upper level trough moves across the region Monday, ridging
will build back in quickly by Wednesday. A second upper level trough
will move across the region Thursday as weak upper level high
pressure will slowly creep into the Mid-Atlantic region late week.

At the surface, a weak cold front will make its way across the
Appalachian mountains and into Central NC on Monday. As the front
approaches dew points are expected to get into the mid/upper 70s in
some areas resulting in another hot day. Monday rain chances will be
isolated across much of the Piedmont region and more scattered to
numerous over the Coast Plain region. Timing is still a little
uncertain as some models show decaying of the precip as it moves
across the region but for now have best/high chance in the afternoon
to early evening especially over the Coastal Plain. Temperatures are
expected to be in the low 90s in the NW to mid/upper 90s elsewhere.

Tuesday is expected to be dry with the frontal boundary to the south
of the region. However the far southeastern portions of the FA could
see lingering showers Tuesday afternoon if the boundary stalls
closer than anticipated. As surface high sits just off the Mid-
Atlantic coast, Wednesday is expected to be oppressive as dew points
are expected to get back into the low to mid 70s and temperatures
warming up into the mid/upper 90s with a few triple digits in the
warmer areas. Heat indices will be in the 100s almost everywhere
with 105+ F heat indices around the Triangle and far southern
portions of the Sandhills. Scattered showers will be possible
especially across the western Piedmont and Sandhills Wednesday
afternoon as moisture returns to the area, although chances remain
low in the 20-30 percent range.

Thursday into Friday another cold front is expected to move across
the region bringing a better chance for showers and storms.
Continuous model agreement has shown the best chance for
precipitation will be in the afternoon and early evening hours. The
frontal system is expected to move to the coast by Friday morning
where like last time is expected to linger. This will result in
afternoon showers and storms possible across the far southern
portions of the CWA Friday and Saturday afternoons. Thursday will be
warm ahead of the front with high temperatures in the mid/upper 90s.
Temperatures are expected to cool down a little Friday and Saturday
(but still 5-7 degrees above normal) with highs in the low to mid
90s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 AM Friday...

24-hour TAF period: Increasing low-level moisture in the form of +70
dewpoints into the coastal plain, sandhills, and now the eastern
Piedmont counties will support a chance for IFR to MVFR restrictions
in stratus and/or fog at KFAY and KRWI, and possibly KRDU.
Meanwhile, KGSO and KINT should remain VFR overnight.

The stratus/fog should scour out relatively quickly, between 12-14z,
with scattered VFR cumulus clouds again this afternoon.

Outlook:  An approaching cold front will support a slight chance of
showers and storms and related sub-VFR restrictions on Sunday, with
better coverage on Monday. Tuesday should be mostly dry before
isolated showers and storms may return on Wednesday especially west.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 22:
KRDU: 100/2022
KFAY: 101/2022

June 23:
KRDU: 100/1986
KFAY: 102/1981

June 24:
KRDU: 99/2010
KFAY: 102/1914

June 25:
KRDU: 100/1952
KFAY: 102/1914

June 26:
KRDU: 102/1952
KFAY: 101/1951


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 22:
KGSO: 75/1981
KRDU: 78/1933

June 23:
KGSO: 74/2015
KRDU: 77/1890
KFAY: 77/2017

June 24:
KGSO: 76/2015
KRDU: 76/1888
KFAY: 79/2010

June 25:
KGSO: 75/2015
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 75/1952

June 26:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 76/1902
KFAY: 76/1997

June 27:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 77/1998

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL/MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CBL/Danco
CLIMATE...RAH