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113
FXUS61 KRLX 230954
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
554 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms today, with the
front crossing tonight. More seasonable air can be expected
behind the front on Monday. Heating up again midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Sunday...

Unseasonably warm air will continue today, but not as hot as the
past week. An approaching cold front will allow for the
development of showers and thunderstorms today. SPC has
outlooked the region with a chance of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. With a freezing level of 15000 to 16000
feet, thinking that the main threat will be wind. With decent
low level shear and helicity values, central Ohio and
northwestern West Virginia even have a small chance of tornados.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Showers and a few lingering thunderstorms will be tapering off in
the mountains by daybreak on Monday as the cold front pushes
eastward. Only a slight chance for some showers will remain across
the mountains of southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia.

A secondary cold front with high pressure hot on its heels will then
move through during the morning to reinforce NW`rly flow, drier air
and near normal to slightly below temperatures. The lowlands will
finally see temperatures in the low to mid 80s with afternoon RH
values in the 40s to low 50s. The mountains will range anywhere from
the upper 60s across the highest elevations to around 80 for the
lower elevations and mountain valleys.

With high pressure in place to decouple the region, cool and
comfortable lows are expected Monday night with 50s and low 60s for
the lowlands; 50s in the mountains. Patchy to dense fog will likely
form in the river valleys overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 AM Sunday...

High pressure dominates the weather for Tuesday with mostly clear
skies and dry conditions, however flow shifts out of the south to
the southwest through the day allowing for above normal temperatures
to return once again Tuesday and again Wednesday. High temperatures
both days will be in the  upper 80s and low 90s for the hot spots
across the lowlands.

PoPs gradually increase west to east Wednesday as a vigorous
shortwave trough and cold front approach the area. Showers and
thunderstorms look likely as these features move through late
Wednesday into Thursday, timing is still not concrete at this
point. Precipitable water values look to be between 1.75" and
2.20" inches ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon, so heavy
rainfall with showers and storms will be possible. WPC already
has a day 5 marginal risk of excessive rainfall across the area.
Not confident in hydro issues yet due to Monday and Tuesday
being dry allowing the Flash Flood Guidance to recharge after
today`s expected rainfall.

High pressure then moves in behind the cold front to dry the
area out for Thursday and lower temperatures some, but mid to
upper 80s are still being suggested by guidance for portions of
the lowlands. Above average temperatures and humidity look to
open up the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 555 AM Sunday...

An approaching cold front will then allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop today. Generally VFR conditions can be
expected outside of the precipitation.

A cold front will then swing through tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms will once again cause restrictions along and ahead
of the front. Behind the front, some MVFR ceilings are possible
in the western upslope region of the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SUN 06/23/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in fog overnight Monday night into early Tuesday
morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...RPY