-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
929
FXUS61 KRLX 201612
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1212 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues through the week courtesy of a broad
upper level ridge. A cold front arrives late Sunday night into
Monday, with showers and storms, and somewhat cooler weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1209 PM Thursday...

Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control through
Friday, with above normal temperatures, and occasional showers and
storms during peak heating hours. Bulk of any convective activity
today should largely be confined to the mountains, but a better
chance will exist on Friday, with a slight uptick in instability
and moisture expected. As with previous days, bulk of any
convection that is able to get going will dissipate with loss of
heating, and storms will be slow to move, and contain brief
heavy downpours.

After some patchy valley fog Friday morning, temperatures Friday
afternoon will tick a few degrees higher.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

The heat looks to surge a bit to end the week, with highs both
days in at least the mid-90s for lower elevations, and mainly
80s in the mountains. Heat index values should reach or exceed
100F in some spots each day, so the Heat Advisory will remain in
place through Saturday. A few isolated showers and storms are
possible both Friday and Saturday during the afternoon and
evening hours, with the best chances in and near the mountains,
but much of the area should remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

It will still be on the hot side on Sunday, though likely a few
degrees cooler than Saturday for most of the CWA. Cloud cover
and moisture are forecast to increase some as SW`ly winds
develop ahead of a cold front moving through the Midwest. Models
seem to be coming into better agreement that the front will
pass Sunday night or Monday morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front later Sunday
afternoon and evening, with a band of showers and/or storms then
expected with the front itself. It is too far out currently to
say much on severe potential, but we`ll need to monitor as there
is likely to be some increase in shear, as well as at least
some elevated instability overnight.

Monday sees temps drop a bit, with mid-80s to around 90 degrees
expected for the lower elevations, and 70s to low 80s in the
mountains. The reprieve is likely to be short-lived, as the
upper-level ridge starts to build back into the area on Tuesday.
Temperatures will follow suit, with highs back into the lower
90s for lower elevations for Tuesday and Wednesday. Once the
front clears the area by Monday morning, precip chances should
be cut- off in its wake, and the forecast for dry weather
persists into Tuesday. Another weak shortwave crossing the
Appalachians, could bring showers and storms to the area later
on Wednesday, but details on timing and precip extent remain
hazy at this long lead time.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 620 AM Thursday...

Fog will dissipate in the next couple of hours, then VFR is
expected for the rest of the day courtesy of high pressure. Calm
winds and at least partly clear skies may again allow for some
fog to develop overnight.

Light and variable winds are expected during the day, followed by
calm to light flow for tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High today. Low for fog tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/duration of fog tonight may vary from
the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 625 AM Thursday...

A heat wave continues through the weekend. Temperatures are
forcast to approach record highs at some locations on several
days.

The records for Thursday, June 20 to Sunday, June 23 are listed
below for our official climate sites, along with the current
forecast values.

  Forecast / Record High Temperatures
---------------------------------------
      Thursday, 6/20 |  Friday, 6/21  |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 93 / 99 (1931) | 94 /105 (1931) |
HTS | 93 /100 (1931) | 97 / 99 (1953) |
CKB | 92 / 94 (1931) | 94 / 98 (1953) |
PKB | 94 / 97 (1931) | 95 / 97 (1953) |
BKW | 87 / 92 (1931) | 89 / 93 (1953) |
EKN | 90 / 92 (1931) | 91 / 92 (1953) |
---------------------------------------
      Saturday, 6/22 |  Sunday, 6/23  |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 96 / 98 (1988) | 94 /100 (1929) |
HTS | 97 / 98 (1988) | 94 /100 (1930) |
CKB | 94 / 97 (1923) | 91 / 96 (1957) |
PKB | 96 / 98 (1988) | 93 / 94 (1964) |
BKW | 90 / 92 (1931) | 88 / 91 (1931) |
EKN | 92 / 93 (1923) | 89 / 89 (1899) |
---------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may be
neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus the
all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |     96     |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |     97     |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |     94     |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |     96     |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |     90     |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |     92     |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

             Records Broken Thus Far
---------------------------------------------------
      Date          Site   New Record  Old Record |
---------------------------------------------------
June 18th (Tues.) |  EKN  |    92    |  91 (1994) |
June 19th (Weds.) |  EKN  |    90    |  89 (1905) |
---------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JLB

CLIMATE...TRM/JLB/GW