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223
FXUS61 KRLX 261636
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1236 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front crosses tonight through Thursday, with rounds
showers and storms. A few storms could be strong or severe.
Another cold front this weekend with additional storms.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1237 PM Wednesday...

Showers and storms from this morning will continue to gradually lift
north and east of the area. An area of clearing in the cloud cover
has occurred across parts of our south and west behind this band,
and mesoanalysis and satellite images indicate increasing
instability and some cu starting to develop in the area of clearing.
Showers and storms will ramp up this afternoon and evening out ahead
of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front in the increasingly
unstable atmosphere, with the possibility of a few storms becoming
strong to severe. Model soundings indicate the potential for 2500
J/Kg cape out ahead of this feature, and with strengthening deep
unidirectional shear, linear organization of storms is possible,
along with the possibility of pulse severe storms, with a damaging
wind threat. In addition, with freezing levels around 12k feet, some
marginally severe hail is possible. In addition, with PW values
already around 1.7 inches and progged to rise to close to 2 inches,
heavy downpours will accompany any storms, and although we are quite
dry, a localized water issue cant be completely ruled out in poor
drainage/low lying areas.

Frontal boundary will clear mountains during the day Thursday.
Additional showers and storms will be possible Thursday across the
higher terrain from any lingering moisture, but most of the area
should dry out and be cooler.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

Models indicate that enough low level moisture will remain
behind the cold front to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday, while others
indicate a drier solution. Will keep some small mountain POPs,
with a bit better chances in Virginia. More seasonable
temperatures can be expected for Thursday.

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday,
southerly winds will allow temperatures to climb above normal
for this time of year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms
are also once again possible, although most of the region will
remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on
Saturday. Models have a cold front pushing through late Saturday
night into Sunday, with better agreement on the timing than
previous runs.

A high pressure system will provide dry weather behind the front
on Monday. Models have some disagreement on the amount of cooler
air for Monday, with temperatures either more seasonable or
possibly even below normal.

The cooler weather will be rather brief, as the high pressure
system slides eastward allowing for southerly winds and above
normal temperatures by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 645 AM Wednesday...

Seeing a few showers form across the Tri-State Area ahead of
storm complex over Kentucky. Most sites will escape seeing
showers, except for possibly HTS and PKB. Otherwise, VFR until
the afternoon under BKN and SCT skies.

Another round of thunderstorms and showers will arrive this
afternoon as the atmosphere becomes unstable ahead of a cold
front, anytime after ~16Z, as a cold front approaches from the
west. MVFR and IFR restrictions possible in and around any
showers and storms.

Light to calm SW`rly flow expected this morning. Winds will pick
up with mixing, then shift out of the west this afternoon with
the FROPA. Winds could be breezy at times during the day and
gusty in and around showers and thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage, timing and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms today and tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms today into tonight, and
again on Saturday and Sunday.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC