-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
398
FXUS61 KRNK 231042
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
642 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front crosses the region today bringing with it a chance for
isolated showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather returns for
Monday and Tuesday with temperatures gradually increasing again
through Wednesday. The next chance of rain and thunderstorms
arrives on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot and humid today with heat indices approaching 100F in a
few areas.

2) A chance of showers and thunderstorms with a frontal passage.

Fair weather this morning ahead of an approaching front from the
Midwest. Front is currently located across Illinois and Indiana
and will continue to quickly move southeast associated with a
quick moving upper low passing through Southern Canada.

Lee troughing today with west-southwest winds expected through
the day. Could have some gusts into the 20mph range through late
morning and into the afternoon. Dewpoints will be on the rise
especially into the Piedmont, but may struggle to get moisture
return across the mountains, especially with better mixing
potential.

Although quite warm today, could have lack of instability for
the western half of the CWA owning to the lack of moisture
return with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. This, along
with potential for a west-southwest flow may prevent much in the
way of rain/storms until late this evening when forcing arrives
with the actual front. Better instability across the Piedmont
may allow for a few isolated pre-frontal storms this afternoon.
Best chance for any storms will be from 6pm to midnight.

Front will push through late tonight and perhaps a few remaining
upslope showers remain after midnight.

Should see strong heating once again today before any clouds
arrive/form. Mid upper 80s for the mountains and mid 90s for the
Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for drier conditions on Monday and Tuesday.

2) The heat and humidity returns on Wednesday along with a chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

A cold front will move offshore on Monday, while high pressure
builds from the northwest to provide drier air. Dewpoints should
tumble downward about ten degrees between Monday morning and Monday
night amidst a notable northwest breeze, so it will certainly
provide some relief from the heat and humidity spanning the past
couple days. Temperatures should fall into the 50s west of the Blue
Ridge and into the lower 60s to the east by Tuesday morning. Dry
weather will continue through Tuesday, but temperatures should start
to creep upward again as the flow spins around to the south.

Moisture should return during Tuesday night into Wednesday from a
southwest breeze as high pressure moves off the East Coast. A cold
front will approach the Ohio River Valley during Wednesday
afternoon, while temperatures should soar into the mid 90s across
the Piedmont. As a result, heat indices could approach 100 degrees
along and east of a line from Danville to Lynchburg. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front across the
mountains during Wednesday afternoon and head eastward. The added
heat and moisture could fuel the potential for some strong storms
before they dissipate later by Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for daily chances of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms to end the week.

2) Temperatures should still remain above normal.

More showers and thunderstorms could develop on Thursday as a cold
front crosses the Mid Atlantic, but the greatest threat for strong
storms will shift towards the East Coast. Somewhat drier air will
arrive on Thursday night, but high pressure should stay further to
the north on Friday. Consequently, the decrease in heat and humidity
will not be as much compared to what will take place earlier this
week. Lingering moisture with orographical lift from a southeast
flow could spark more showers and thunderstorms along and west of
the Blue Ridge during both afternoons of Friday and Saturday.
Another cold front will approach the Ohio River Valley by late
Saturday, which will keep the Mid Atlantic in the warm sector with
temperatures staying above normal to close the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 630 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR this morning and VFR is expected through most of the the
24hr TAF period. May have some MVFR cloudiness towards the end
of the valid 24hr period across the western mountains.

Winds increase later this morning from the southwest ahead of
an approaching front. Winds may gust to the low 20kt range at
times this afternoon, with winds relaxing again after sunset.
Some isolated storms are possible with the frontal passage later
today, but not confident enough to add any TS mention in the
TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions expected through much of the week, with the only
exception being areas of valley fog in the early morning hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

Sunday 06/23/2024
Site  MaxT Year  MinT Year  LoMax Year  HiMin Year
KBLF    90 1988    45 2021     51 1972     71 2015
KDAN   100 1988    47 1918     67 1936     81 1923
KLYH    98 1911    48 1918     60 1972     77 1996
KROA    98 1914    46 1947     61 1972     75 1996
KRNK    95 1914    38 1902     63 1972     70 1896

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG
CLIMATE...BMG