053
FXUS65 KABQ 052028
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
228 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 227 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Threat of locally heavy rain and strong storms remains
across eastern NM today and Saturday afternoon. Burn scar flash
flooding and the threat for a few severe storms will be present. Dry
northwesterly winds fill in across western NM to the Rio Grande
Valley. Dryness and winds increase to a degree to allow for critical
fire weather concerns in the Northwest Plateau Sunday. Temperatures
reach a peak Sunday as well, with highs in Roswell nearing the 105F
mark. A strong backdoor cold front surges through eastern NM
bringing a high likelihood for high wind gusts through the gaps of
the central mountain chain Sunday night into Monday morning to parts
of Albuquerque. Winds taper off thereafter with daily rounds of
afternoon storms favoring the mountains each afternoon before moving
over surrounding lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A replenishment of low-level moisture followed a cold front
that reached through the gaps of the central mountain chain last
night. Dewpoints in the 50s this morning at Albuquerque have already
fallen to the low 40s as much drier northwesterly flow aloft mixes
out this moisture. Deeper moisture remains riding up the east slopes
of the central mountain chain this afternoon, and the afternoon`s
first round of thunderstorms has initiated over the Sangre de
Cristo`s and Sacramento Mountains. Mean H7-H5 northwesterly winds of
15-20 kts are taking storms southeastward over the adjacent
highlands. SBCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and bulk shear 30-35 kts is
prompting a marginal risk for a storm or two to become severe off
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains today. Slower storm motions further
south will allow cells currently developing over the burn scars by
Ruidoso to produce locally heavy rainfall and threaten flash
flooding and debris flows. The limiting factor for both of these is
drier air aloft embedded within the northwesterly flow. So far, this
has inhibited the first batch of updrafts east of Raton in the
Sangre de Cristo`s, but subsequent updrafts since are overcoming
this dry air. Thunderstorm activity will track to the I-40 corridor
over eastern NM by 6pm to 8pm MDT with continued showers and an
isolated thunderstorm remaining possible over the eastern plains
overnight. Another east canyon wind event looks likely in
Albuquerque and Santa Fe, but currently looks to be less intense
than the 34kt peak gust observed at the ABQ Sunport last night.
Drier northwesterly flow advances further into NM Saturday shunting
moisture further southeast. This will significantly reduce afternoon
storm chances over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, leaving the
Sacramento`s still in play for scattered to numerous afternoon
storms developing on the ridge line. Storm motions will be faster
for storms over the Sacramento Mountains however, and this will
limit the residence time of storms over any one location, reducing
the risk of flash flooding somewhat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The long term period begins with northwesterly flow
rounding the eastern periphery of a 598dm H5 high over central CA
bringing more drier air over New Mexico. Temperatures across the
eastern plains continue to considerably trend warmer with some lower
elevation areas south of I-40 reaching the 100F mark. Roswell in
particular is forecast to reach 104F. This drier, warmer and windier
weather pattern will be short lived as a an upper level disturbance
moving down the Rockies will send down a potent backdoor cold front
into eastern NM Sunday evening. Strong winds and a sudden drop in
temperatures will accompany this frontal boundary, alongside a
significant uptick in low-level moisture. The strong density
gradient between this airmass and the much drier airmass ahead of it
lends credence to the MEX guidance advertising 39kt winds surging
through the gaps of the Sandia/Manzano`s into ABQ Sunday night
through Monday morning. A High Wind Watch may be necessary as we get
closer to this event. The front surges to the AZ border Monday with
high temperatures falling 15F-20F across eastern NM relative to
Sunday`s forecast highs. Afternoon storms Monday will favor the
central mountain chain, and any activity across eastern NM will
likely be inhibited by mid-level capping.

The upper high remains planted over the Great Basin through the rest
of the week with northerly flow aloft over NM. Low-level moisture
will remain in place across the forecast area with daily rounds of
afternoon storms favoring initiation over the high terrain before
tracking southward over surrounding lower elevation areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The low cloud ceilings that filled in across eastern NM behind
last night`s backdoor cold front are steadily breaking up this
hour. Expect to see continued improving flight categories at areas
around b/w KRTN to KTCC to KCVN over the next hour or so. Dry air
punches through western NM to the Rio Grande Valley which will act
to subdue any precipitation chances there. Afternoon thunderstorm
activity will favor initiation along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain near 19Z before tracking southeastward over
the highlands and eastern plains late today and this evening.
Outflow from these storms will reinvigorate a westerly push of the
surface frontal boundary through the gaps of the central mountain
chain this evening, producing another east canyon wind at KSAF and
KABQ gusting upwards of 30kts at KABQ. Low clouds and possibly fog
will develop over a wide swath of the eastern plains again tonight
into Saturday morning, expect another round of IFR/MVFR ceilings
to result from this.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Drier northwesterly flow will continue to push
further into NM through Sunday. Daily rounds of afternoon storms
will favor the eastern slopes of the central mountain chain today
and Saturday before tracking southeastward over the adjacent
highlands and plains. The driest, warmest and windiest conditions
favoring critical fire weather conditions will occur Sunday
afternoon. The Northwest Plateau including Farmington will see the
most widespread critical fire weather conditions. This will be short
lived as a potent backdoor cold front brings in much cooler air with
a significant uptick in moisture following it. No fire weather
conditions are expected thereafter through the rest of next week as
abundant low level moisture remains. Daily rounds of afternoon
thunderstorms developing over the high terrain of central and
western NM will be favored before they move over surrounding lower
elevations. Locally heavy rainfall and the threat of flash flooding
will result.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  91  53  94 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  43  87  43  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  50  86  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  43  90  46  93 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  48  86  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  45  90  47  92 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  50  88  52  90 /   0   0   5   5
Magdalena.......................  60  89  60  93 /  10  30  10   5
Datil...........................  54  87  56  90 /   5   0   5   5
Reserve.........................  53  94  52  96 /   5  20  10  10
Glenwood........................  66  98  66 100 /  20  30  20  10
Chama...........................  45  80  46  83 /   0   0   0  10
Los Alamos......................  58  84  59  87 /  10  10   0   5
Pecos...........................  55  83  56  88 /  40  10   5  10
Cerro/Questa....................  41  81  43  83 /  30  10   0  20
Red River.......................  42  73  44  75 /  30  10   5  30
Angel Fire......................  40  76  40  78 /  50  20   5  20
Taos............................  49  85  47  88 /  30   5   0   5
Mora............................  49  82  51  85 /  50  10  10  20
Espanola........................  58  91  55  94 /  20   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  58  85  58  88 /  30  10   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  58  88  56  91 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  92  65  96 /  10  10   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  94  63  97 /   5   5   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  96  61  99 /   5   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  95  63  98 /   5   0   0   0
Belen...........................  60  96  58  99 /   5   5   5   0
Bernalillo......................  63  95  62  98 /   5   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  59  95  57  99 /   5   0   5   0
Corrales........................  63  96  62  99 /   5   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  60  96  58  99 /   5   0   5   0
Placitas........................  61  90  62  94 /  10   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  63  95  63  98 /   5   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  65  97  64 100 /  10  20  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  85  59  89 /  10  10   5   0
Tijeras.........................  58  88  60  92 /  10  10   5   0
Edgewood........................  55  88  55  92 /  20  10  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  89  51  93 /  20  10  10   0
Clines Corners..................  53  83  54  87 /  40  20  10   5
Mountainair.....................  55  87  56  91 /  20  20  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  55  87  56  92 /  20  40  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  63  90  65  96 /  30  40  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  56  81  61  88 /  40  70  20  10
Capulin.........................  52  81  52  81 /  40  30  10  30
Raton...........................  54  85  51  88 /  50  10  10  20
Springer........................  56  87  52  90 /  50  10  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  53  82  53  86 /  50  20  10  10
Clayton.........................  58  85  60  86 /  30  30  10  20
Roy.............................  57  83  55  88 /  50  30  10  20
Conchas.........................  61  90  60  95 /  60  20  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  60  87  59  93 /  70  30  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  60  90  64  94 /  40  20  10   0
Clovis..........................  62  89  66  97 /  30  20  10   5
Portales........................  63  90  66  99 /  30  20  10   5
Fort Sumner.....................  62  90  65  98 /  60  30  10   0
Roswell.........................  69  94  71 104 /  60  30  10   0
Picacho.........................  63  87  63  97 /  50  60  10   5
Elk.............................  59  85  61  95 /  40  70  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24