138
FXUS65 KABQ 012329 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
529 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

An active 2024 North American Monsoon continues with rounds of
storms through Wednesday and the potential for flash flooding,
especially on and near area burn scars. Independence Day will be
the hottest and driest of the forecast period, with isolated
storms possible across southern portions of the area. A backdoor
front will recharge moisture Friday and lead to an uptick in storm
coverage going into the weekend, mainly along and east of the
central mountain chain. Temperatures will rise late in the weekend
and into early next week across western NM, under the influence
of high pressure parked over the Desert Southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

An anomalously high PWAT atmosphere persists over the area, with
the 12Z KABQ upper air sounding showing 1.22" which is another
calendar day record high. A round of daytime heating triggered
convection is already underway and is forecast to expand in
coverage and intensity going into the early evening hours. The
CAMs have been consistency from this morning through mid day in
showing convection initiating and staying east of the Sacramento
burn scar complex and a round of storms impacting the Albuquerque
and Santa Fe Metros between 4-8PM. The CAMs also show the HPCC
burn scar being impacted by storms between 7-9PM this evening. A
Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of central/western NM
through 3AM, with no changes planned. The upper high will continue
to back out of southern NM Tuesday, allowing the westerlies to
penetrate further south into the state as an upper level
trough/low ejects east out of the central Rockies. Greater west to
east storm motion may lower the threat some for burn scar flooding
Tuesday, but very little rain is needed to cause major problems
now due to saturated grounds. A Flash Flood Watch for at least our
problematic burn scars will need to be considered for Tuesday.
Otherwise, Tuesday will be similar to today with another round of
afternoon/evening storms forecast to impact the Albuquerque and
Santa Fe Metros. Given the buoyant atmosphere, convection will be
slower to diminish during the overnight hours compared to our
normal loss of diurnal heating downturns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Weak westerly flow will prevail Wednesday and drier air will
infiltrate northwest NM from the Great Basin as an upper high
builds east from CA across the Desert SW. Wednesday will still be
active, but not as active as today and Tuesday due to a downtrend
in PWATs. In terms of burn scar flood threat on Wednesday, the
Sacramento Complex will be the highest threat area due to slower
storm motion and higher PWATs across southern portions of the
area. The downtrend in PWATs will continue through Independence
Day as northwest flow spreads east over the area with the upper
high over CA strengthening and expanding. Independence Day will
definitely be the hottest and driest day of the forecast cycle,
but an isolated storms across southern portions of the area can
not be ruled out. Just as quickly as the area dries out, a
backdoor front will race southwest across the eastern plains to
the central mountain chain late Thursday into early Friday. This
will recharge moisture and set the stage for daily rounds of
storms across eastern NM with northwest flow aloft through the
weekend. Meanwhile, the upper high centroid will move inland and
be over CA/NV, keeping western NM dry and bringing above normal
temperatures going into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms continue to trek eastward
across western and central NM with more isolated activity over
the east-central plains. The thunderstorm activity through central
NM mainly along and just north of I-40 from KGNT to KSAF will
continue to progress eastward toward KLVS over the next hour to
two hours. Hi-res CAMs show activity clearing out of the KABQ
area, but will leave a TEMPO for thunderstorms there and at KAEG
to 02Z due to a panoply of outflow boundaries still present that
could collide and produce a rogue new cell. Convective activity
will steadily taper off through the evening to about midnight or
just after. Tuesday will see another round of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms threatening locally heavy rain, cloud-to-
ground lightning, small hail and gusty winds focusing along a line
from the NE to SW corners of the forecast area. These cells will
track east through the late day and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at
least the next seven days as an active North American Monsoon
continues, bringing daily rounds of wetting storms and good to
excellent humidity recovery. An elevated threat for burn scar
flooding will exist through Wednesday, then trend down
Independence Day before a backdoor front recharges moisture on
Friday and brings a renewed threat for burn scar flooding going
into the weekend. Increasing northwest flow aloft will dry-out
western portions of the area from Independence Day onward through
the weekend, brining back hot, dry and unstable conditons by late
in the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  89  61  93 /  30  10   5   5
Dulce...........................  53  84  46  87 /  50  20   5   5
Cuba............................  56  82  55  86 /  50  20  10  20
Gallup..........................  56  86  53  90 /  40  30  10  10
El Morro........................  57  81  56  85 /  50  50  30  20
Grants..........................  57  83  54  89 /  50  50  20  20
Quemado.........................  59  82  58  87 /  60  70  30  30
Magdalena.......................  62  82  63  84 /  70  70  40  50
Datil...........................  58  80  59  84 /  60  70  30  50
Reserve.........................  58  87  57  88 /  50  60  30  40
Glenwood........................  67  93  69  91 /  40  50  40  40
Chama...........................  50  79  48  81 /  50  20  10  20
Los Alamos......................  60  80  61  84 /  70  50  10  30
Pecos...........................  57  82  58  84 /  50  50  20  40
Cerro/Questa....................  50  80  46  81 /  60  30  10  30
Red River.......................  48  72  45  73 /  60  40  20  40
Angel Fire......................  48  75  43  77 /  40  30  10  30
Taos............................  55  84  52  86 /  70  20  10  20
Mora............................  55  81  53  82 /  50  40  10  40
Espanola........................  61  86  59  90 /  70  20  10  20
Santa Fe........................  60  82  61  84 /  70  50  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  61  85  59  88 /  70  40  10  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  86  67  89 /  70  50  30  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  88  66  91 /  70  40  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  90  66  92 /  70  40  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  87  66  91 /  70  40  20  30
Belen...........................  64  90  63  93 /  70  50  30  30
Bernalillo......................  65  89  66  92 /  70  40  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  62  90  63  92 /  70  40  20  30
Corrales........................  63  89  66  91 /  70  40  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  62  90  64  93 /  70  50  20  30
Placitas........................  64  86  66  89 /  70  40  20  30
Rio Rancho......................  65  88  66  91 /  70  40  20  30
Socorro.........................  68  90  69  92 /  70  60  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  81  62  84 /  70  60  20  30
Tijeras.........................  62  84  62  86 /  70  50  20  30
Edgewood........................  60  85  59  86 /  60  50  20  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  86  56  87 /  60  50  20  40
Clines Corners..................  57  82  57  84 /  50  60  30  40
Mountainair.....................  60  84  60  85 /  70  60  30  40
Gran Quivira....................  60  85  60  86 /  60  60  40  60
Carrizozo.......................  67  89  67  88 /  50  50  40  60
Ruidoso.........................  60  81  61  80 /  30  70  50  70
Capulin.........................  59  83  56  83 /  30  40  30  50
Raton...........................  58  88  57  87 /  30  30  20  40
Springer........................  61  89  58  89 /  30  30  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  58  83  56  83 /  40  50  20  40
Clayton.........................  66  91  63  88 /  30  30  30  30
Roy.............................  63  87  61  86 /  40  40  30  40
Conchas.........................  68  96  66  94 /  40  30  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  66  91  65  91 /  50  40  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  69  98  67  95 /  30  30  40  30
Clovis..........................  69  96  69  95 /  10  30  50  40
Portales........................  70  98  70  96 /  10  30  40  30
Fort Sumner.....................  70  95  69  94 /  30  30  40  30
Roswell.........................  74 102  75 100 /  20  30  30  40
Picacho.........................  66  91  67  90 /  30  50  30  70
Elk.............................  62  88  63  87 /  30  70  40  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Tuesday for NMZ203-204-206>208-
210>226-229-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...24