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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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399 FXUS63 KABR 011901 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 201 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind gusts out of the southeast at 35 to near 45 mph will slowly diminish this evening. - There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather from mid afternoon into this evening. The main threats with the stronger storms will be large hail and strong wind gusts, but a tornado cannot be ruled out. - The active weather pattern of showers and thunderstorms persists through the workweek. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Daytime heating and elevated lapse rates over western SD will assist in the rapid development of thunderstorms in the next 2-3 hours. We will be monitoring these storms as they near or develop across our central SD counties around or shortly after 21Z. Initial storms will be capable of producing large hail around 2 inches in diameter, strong winds over 60 mph. We won`t be able to rule out a tornado or 2 with these initial storms over our area. Forecast solutions have come into better agreement on the timing of storms between 5-9pm over central SD and the James River Valley from 8-10pm, before shifting to far eastern SD and west central MN 10pm-midnight. Significant low level clouds across the James River Valley and east should act to weaken incoming storms, despite the significant low level moisture and strong winds. Other than lingering light showers over our far eastern counties after midnight, dry weather should then be the rule for much of the forecast area through the rest of the forecast period. The exception will be our far southwest counties. We`ll be monitoring the latest trends, as some CAMS are pin pointing the potential for a few showers or weak thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Our temperature forecast is currently running in the 20-40th percentile (on the low side) Wednesday through Thursday. While the 25-75th percentiles are generally within about 5 degrees, be aware that there is room for change and more likely to higher readings for that period. Dry weather will continue through Wednesday morning. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather Wednesday over our counties west of the Missouri River. Dewpoints will be on the increase again Wednesday late Wednesday afternoon/evening, getting back into the low 60s. A band of higher CAPE values over 1000 J/kg looks to move into at least our southwestern counties by around 21Z as a trough shifts across western SD. The main surface low over eastern CO will push southeast across western KS/OK Thursday morning. The unsettled (at least a 30 percent chance of precipitation every 6 hours) will continue through Thursday evening, with more afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm anticipated through the upcoming weekend. The 500mb trough currently over the west coast will shift across the Northern Plains on Tuesday, and be reinforced Thursday with a low sinking overhead before shifting across MN late Thursday night into Friday. While a brief ridge may shift in Friday night, an overall trough type of pattern will quickly return for the rest of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Elevated winds out of the south to southeast gusting 30 to near 40kts will continue at all locations, weakest at MBG and PIR. These wind will slowly diminish overnight behind the surface through. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop near/west of PIR/MBG by around 22Z and shift over those sites by around 01Z Tuesday as they near ABR. Expect storms to weaken as they move near ATY mainly after 03Z. Still, particularly for PIR/MBG large hail over golf ball size and winds over 60-70mph will be possible in the strongest storms. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KF