Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
848 FXAK68 PAFC 210044 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 444 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday)... An upper-level trough over the Gulf of Alaska continues digging to the east, sending its surface low into Southeast Alaska. Tonight, expect the Cook Inlet region northward through the Mat-Su (including Anchorage) to see skies clear out and temperatures drop to the coldest morning temperatures so far this Autumn season. Conditions across Southcentral and the Gulf remain generally dry and benign until the next system enters the western Gulf on Sunday morning. Its front will lift across the entire Gulf and reach the north Gulf coast by Sunday evening. Steady precipitation and sustained gale-force winds are expected to accompany the system. The precipitation with this system should stay confined to the Gulf coast and waters, leaving interior Southcentral on the drier side. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Dry and cool conditions will continue across Southwest Alaska into Saturday while high pressure resides over the eastern Bering. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s for much of the region. As has been advertised, active weather is beginning to move through the Aleutians with the first of two upper lows moving into the Central Aleutians this afternoon. Gusty winds to 35 knots and a broader field of gales to spread across the western Bering into tonight. A second and stronger low slides into and replaces Friday`s low across the Central Aleutians. This low will spread a broad occluded front from west to east across the Aleutian Chain through Sunday. Expect numerous showers and continued gusty conditions across the Southern Bering as the front and the low itself eventually consolidate over the Alaska Peninsula. The main concern over the weekend will be the consolidation of the low on Sunday and a developing pressure gradient over the Western Alaska Range into Bristol Bay. Gusty easterly winds of 35 to 45 mph are forecast to spill through the Kamishak Gap into portions of Greater Bristol Bay while 35 to 45 knot gusts are expected to encompass much of the Alaska Peninsula into Sunday night. Low pressure departs the region early next week with a brief reprieve from unsettled conditions for the Bering and Southwest Alaska. BL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)... Long wave upper level low pressure system over much of the State continues to be the main focus in the extended outlook. Models are in fairly good agreement with a well defined surface low and upper level troughing across most of the southern portion of the State, Aleutians Islands and and Gulf waters early in the period. Models differ somewhat on intensity of shortwave troughs developing across the southern portion of the Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands and coastal Gulf of Alaska throughout the period. The long wave trough axis will remain fairly entrenched across the interior of the state, allowing for quickly moving shortwaves to bring strong coastal winds and moderate precipitation across the eastern portion of the Aleutians, the Alaskan Peninsula and coastal Gulf waters through Friday. High pressure will ridge in behind the long wave trough late Thursday and into Friday ahead of another North Pacific Low that will approach the Western Aleutians Friday evening. && .AVIATION... PANC...There is currently a weak low-level wave moving northwestward from Prince William Sound, bringing precipitation to parts of the Western Chugach, Kenai, and Talkeetna mountains. It is possible these showers will briefly creep into the airport Friday afternoon, but VFR conditions and light winds should persist. While it is not the most favorable pattern for it, we cannot rule out the possibility for some low-lying fog in some localized locations Saturday morning. There is high confidence for clouds to dissipate overnight bringing widespread sunshine across Southcentral through Saturday. && $$