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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
342 FXAK69 PAFG 301336 CCB AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1259 AM AKDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another hot day for the Interior today as temps reach into the mid 80 degree range. Smoke will continue to be hazardous to health across parts of the Interior with poor smoke ventilation rates. Monday, the ridge is weakening and west winds begin to ventilate smoke off to the east which should result in some improvement. Tuesday, southwest winds increase even more and temps slowly begin falling as a major pattern shift begins toward breezier, cooler, and eventually wetter conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... There is a 538 dam upper low centered over the E Aleutian Islands with a building 569 dam ridge over the Interior of Alaska and poking into the NW Arctic. There is a 528 dam arctic low over the Beaufort Sea. There is a broad 1006 mb thermal trough situated over the SE Interior. Weak high pressure is over the Arctic coast with areas of stratus and fog. Model Discussion... Models are locked into the general pattern well into late week. We prefer a NAM nest hi-res winds forecast with a blend to the NAM and GFS models for the beginning of next week as a strong trough moves across the NW Arctic, bringing winds and cooler temps. Central and Eastern Interior... Another hot and smoky day for much of the Interior as temps shoot into the mid to upper 80s. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from Fairbanks south and east, with strong thunderstorms expected over parts of the Alaska Range and SE Interior from Northway to Eagle. Showers and some isolated thunderstorms will likely go all night long along and near the AK Range. Monday, a pattern shift begins with slightly cooler temps and increasing west to southwest winds over the Interior, which will support more afternoon thunderstorm chances from Fairbanks south and east. With a weak northwest steering flow, some thunderstorms will form over the hills and drift into the Fairbanks area. The westerly winds will begin to ventilate smoke out of the Interior and it should improve air quality somewhat. Tuesday is cooler again with breezy westerly winds to 10 to 15 mph and thunderstorm threats generally relegated to the higher elevations and over the E Interior. West Coast and Western Interior... Slowly warming temps through Monday, with a fairly good chance for some stronger thunderstorms and heavy rain showers late today and tonight from the W Alaska Range west to the YK Delta, as an easterly wave moves across that area. Some storms may get fairly close to the coast by Sun night. Otherwise, Monday is fairly quiet with some isolated thunderstorms over the Interior and some southwest winds in the afternoon. Tuesday, a fairly stout mid- summer front will bring in broad southwest winds to near gale force and rain from the Seward Peninsula north, with heavy rain over the W Brooks Range. Expect 1-3 inches of rainfall over the Chukchi coastal region and higher elevations. North Slope and Brooks Range... Isolated thunderstorms are again possible Sunday mainly over the E Brooks Range, with some showers on Monday over the crest of the range. Otherwise, weak high pressure along the coast will promote periods of sun and stratus/fog at times, although it will not be extremely widespread. Beginning Tuesday, a strong front originating from E Siberia will plow across the entire region bringing heavy rainfall and strong southwest winds 15 to 30 mph with higher mountain gap winds. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... The big shift in the pattern is commencing Tue and continuing through late week, as subtropical zonal flow pushes the ridge east and replaces it with strong southwest winds and periods of rainfall for the later week. This pattern will be a huge shift from the hot and dry and smoky and will likely bring relief to the Interior. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong southwest winds to gale force will bring elevated water levels of 2 to 3 feet above the normal high tideline from Norton Sound to the Chukchi coast beginning Tue and lasting into late week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry today with widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms over the SE Interior, and isolated thunderstorms over the Interior to Fairbanks and to the W Alaska Range. Temps are in the mid 80s and min RH will be widespread mid to upper 20 % range. Winds will be light from the north, so smoke will continue to be dense at times. A batch of strong thunderstorms and wetting rains will likely move across the W Alaska Range across the Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Mtns to the Delta. The scattered thunderstorms over the SE Interior are also very wet. Monday, the flow becomes westerly near the surface with cooling temps by 3 to 5 degrees and improving dense smoke conditions as ventilation rates will increase. More afternoon isolated to widely scattered thunder over the Interior higher elevation terrain, but with a northwest steering flow, some storms will move south into the Tanana Valley. Tuesday, southwest winds increase even more and will get to near critical values over the N Interior, but will be fairly breezy everywhere. Temps are falling again closer to seasonal norms of mid to upper 70s. Only isolated thunderstorms are expected Tue and those will favor higher elevations and the E Interior. Wednesday will have fairly && .HYDROLOGY... Glacial fed rivers including the Tanana are slowly rising as warming temperatures lead to increased high elevation snowmelt and glacial melt. Beginning next week around Wednesday, heavy rainfall will move across the W Brooks Range with 2 -4 inches of rainfall through the weekend, with 0.75 to 2 inches over parts of the Interior. Expect river rises with this amount of water across the Mainland. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ834-837-839>844. PK...None. && $$ Ahsenmacher