629
FXAK69 PAFG 152234
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 PM AKDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will move north and east along the
West Coast this weekend bringing strong winds, and Heavy rainfall.
As the low tracks towards the Interior, rain will spread eastward
on Sunday. The Interior will stay unsettled through mid-week.
Another low will track into Bristol Bay on Tuesday.

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Aloft, at 500 mb, Aloft, A 525 upper level low over the west coast
will track inland across the western Interior on Monday and
over the E Interior on Tuesday. This will keep most of the
Interior unsettled through Tuesday. At the surface, a 988 mb move
across the Y-K Delta Coast on Sunday. This surface low Surface low
will be near Galena by Monday morning before weakening. Models in
good agreement in the short-term, we will continue with a blend
of the GFS/ECMWF.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Rain and Snow shower activity will be confined to the Brooks
Range today. Mostly snow in the Passes with possible
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches east of the Dalton Highway, but
not much accumulation on the Dalton Highway. Winds diminish late
Sunday into Monday as the front pushes north of the coast. Highs
in the upper 30s to low 40s through Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong low pressure system will move north and east along the
West Coast this weekend bringing strong winds, and Heavy
rainfall. Northwestly winds continue on the backside of the
low this afternoon and evening. The highest water is expected
near Y-K Delta and during the day through this evening. Winds will
begin to diminish overnight tonight. Rainfall totals of half an
inch to an inch and a half are expected through Monday, with
highest amounts south and west of a line from Kaltag to Nikolai.
High temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Another strong low
will track across SW Alaska on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing
more rain and winds to the southern west coast. Northerly winds
will also ramp up over the Bering Strait and Saint Lawrence
Island.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain showers moving across the Interior today as a shortwave
aloft tracks across the area. There could be areas of fog in
valley locations again Monday morning. Rainfall accumulations
around a quarter of an inch expected in the Fairbanks area Sunday,
between a quarter and a half an inch from Bettles to Tanana and
in the Alaska Range, and less than a quarter of an inch elsewhere.
Upper level low over the west coast will continue to track across
the Western Interior on Monday bringing more rain to the region.
Rain spreads across the Central Interior Monday afternoon into
Tuesday. There is a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm
near Eagle/ALCAN Border Monday afternoon. High temperatures top
out in the low 50s and lows drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Another low pressure system moving
across the Bering will approach the southwest coast on Tuesday. A
front associated with this low pressure system will bring heavy
rain to the southwest Interior. Otherwise, overall troughing will
maintain unsettled conditions over the northern Interior, cooler
temps over the north slope and Brooks Range and a chance of
precip. Ridging may build over the west coast by late week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Another strong low
pressure system will move to near St. Matthew Island on Tuesday.
At this time, models indicate that the low will track southeast
from there into Bristol Bay. This track would not impact areas
from the Yukon Delta north with any type of elevated water, but
there could be Gale-Force Winds in the Bering Strait on Tuesday.


.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers across the Interior will rise over the next several days
as rainfall moves into the river basins. Heavy rain expected over
the west coast of 0.50 to 1 inch or more in some locations, that
will likely raise small rivers and streams.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory for AKZ825.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-816-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
&&

$$