184
FXUS61 KALY 270624
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
224 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe weather has exited the region with just some areas of
showers lingering overnight. Then, cooler, breezy and drier
conditions ensue tomorrow with some spotty showers north of
Albany. After a sunny and seasonably cool Friday, chances for
rain and thunderstorms return for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The QLCS that raced through the mid-Hudson Valley into
Litchfield County this evening and produced damaging winds has
exited well to our east and is now in eastern MA. Just a few
areas of stratiform rain linger in the Upper Hudson Valley and
southern VT but if this rain is shriveling up. Otherwise, a
mainly cloudy and mild night expected tonight with a second area
of stratiform rain likely grazing the mid-Hudson Valley and NW
CT after Midnight as rain and storms from eastern PA pushes
into NJ and the NYC area. Luckily, most of our area has been
worked over so no additional severe weather is expected. Lows
fall into the upper 50s to low 60s with cooler lows in the
southern Adirondacks in the mid-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly cloudy skies start the day but skies will gradually give
way to increasing sun through the day as the true cold front
continues to slide south and eastward through the region
ushering in cooler and much drier air. A few isolated showers
remain possible, especially in the southern/western Adirondacks,
Upper Hudson Valley, and southern VT, where an upper level
trough tracking through Quebec will likely provide sufficient
forcing for ascent to generate a few isolated showers. However,
overall moisture through the column is lacking so any shower
will be short-lived and may very well fall more like sprinkles.
Maintained slight chance POP (and even chance POPs in the
southern Greens) wording for areas north of I-90 through 18 -
21 UTC.

Otherwise, since the cooler air mass will be delayed under after
the frontal passage this afternoon, temperatures today should
still end up seasonably warm (albeit cooler than recent days) rising
into the mid to upper 70s with low 80s for the Hudson Valley
areas from the Capital District southward. The sfc pressure
gradient ahead of the incoming front tightens in response to
high pressure building into the Great Lakes and with much drier
air filtering into the area, deep boundary layer mixing will
support gusty winds today. In fact, expecting west to northwest
winds to become sustained up to 10-15kts with gusts up to
20-25kts. The strongest winds will set-up down the Mohawk
Valley into the Greater Capital District, northern Taconics into
Berkshire County.

Skies turn mainly sunny/clear by late afternoon as northwest
winds usher in noticeably cooler and drier air mass. PWATs
only around 0.50" overspread eastern NY and western New
England and dew points quickly tumble into the low 50s to even
upper 40s in the higher terrain areas. Temperatures quickly
respond to the loss of insolation and the dry air mass falling
into the 60s to low 70s by sunset.

Clear and cool conditions expected Thu night, with surface high
pressure in place across the area. With an anomalously dry air
mass (PWAT anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV) in place along with
clear skies and light winds, low temperatures will be below
normal with lower/mid 40s in the mountains and upper 40s/lower
50s in the valleys.

High pressure remains over the region through much of Fri,
before starting to shift east into New England late in the day.
This will result in abundant sunshine, near normal temperatures
and light winds along with comfortable humidity levels
(dewpoints in the 40s!). High pressure moves from New England
Fri evening off the coast overnight, resulting in a southerly
flow developing around the departing high. Along with increasing
clouds, will result in milder (near normal) low temperatures
compared to Thu night, with 50s to around 60. Most of the area
will remain dry, although a few showers may develop prior to
sunrise for areas west of the Hudson Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Potentially active weather this coming weekend, as a series of
fronts move through. A warm front is expected to lift northward
across the area on Sat, with a pre-frontal trough resulting in a
high > 80% probability of showers and storms in the afternoon
and evening. Sufficient moisture should be in place with PWAT
anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV. Magnitude of instability is in
question due to possible cloud cover and potential lack of
heating in the relative warm sector. So there is a low
confidence for strong to severe storms developing. Torrential
downpours may occur in the moisture- rich environment. A better
chance of strong to severe storms may be on Sun ahead of the
true cold front as temperatures warm above normal and greater
instability likely develops. Based on timing of the cold front
as of today, it appears the best chance would be for areas
south/east of Albany. Will continue to monitor trends.

The cold front should clear the area by Sun evening, with
cooler/drier air filtering Sun night. An upper level short wave
trough is forecast to move through on Mon, but with limited
moisture will only mention a slight chance of showers.
Temperatures look to be slightly below normal. Ridging both at
the surface and aloft then takes hold on Tue, with dry
conditions and temperatures warming back to normal. As the high
shifts east of the area on Wed, a warm/moist southerly flow
develops with a chance for showers and storms as a potential
front approaches from the NW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z/Fri...a wave of low pressure passing south of the TAF
sites will bring a period of rain to KPOU through 09Z/Thu, with
spotty light showers/sprinkles possible elsewhere. Generally VFR
conditions are expected despite these showers.

The showers should end shortly before daybreak. Some patchy low
stratus clouds may develop between 10Z-14Z/Thu, producing MVFR Cigs.
There could be some patchy ground fog developing during this time as
well, however overall probability is low enough to preclude mention
at this time.

Cigs should become VFR by early afternoon, with mainly VFR
conditions then prevailing through this evening. Isolated showers
may develop between 14Z-19Z/Thu at KGFL, KALB and KPSF as an upper
level disturbance passes by.

Light/variable winds will become west to northwest shortly after
daybreak and increase to 8-15 KT by late morning, with some gusts up
to 25 KT possible. West/northwest winds will gradually decrease
toward and after sunset to 5-10 KT.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL