932
FXUS61 KALY 031022
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
622 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure positioned to our east will bring another warm
and dry day with comfortable humidity levels. A weak cold front
will cross the region tonight through Independence Day with an
increase in humidity along with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure tracking across the
Great Lakes will keep warm and humid conditions across the
region Friday into the weekend with additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As of 620 AM EDT, an area of thicker mid and high
clouds are currently located across much of the region early
this morning resulting in a more partly to mostly cloudy sky.
These clouds should gradually depart the area through this
morning with mostly sunny conditions regionwide for the
afternoon. While latest radar imagery does show some
precipitation echoes, none of this is expected to reach the
ground, so will keep the forecast dry. Temperatures are starting
out in the mid-50s to mid-60s in most areas and are on track to
reach the upper 70s to mid-80s this afternoon.

Previous Discussion:
High pressure has shifted to the east as high clouds spread
across the region ahead of an approaching warm front. These
clouds have resulted in a variation in surface temperatures
across the region based on their scattered/broken nature. Most
areas will start the day in the 50s to lower 60s. Any fog that
does develop by daybreak looks to be fairly isolated.

The warm front will lift northward across our area today, but
the surface high off to our east combined with upper level
ridging overhead will maintain warm and dry weather with
humidity levels remaining low. Highs will be similar to Tuesday
except perhaps a degree or two warmer with low to mid-80s in the
valleys and upper 70s to around 80 in the higher elevations,
still right around climatological normals for early July. A
southerly breeze will pick up by the afternoon hours with a few
gusts 20 to 30 mph expected.

A prefrontal trough and weak cold front will begin to cross the
state tonight. Some showers and embedded thunderstorms will
approach western areas around midnight and track farther
eastward toward daybreak. Instability will be fairly low with
MUCAPE values generally less than 100 J/kg. With the main
forcing remaining well to the north and west, this activity
should decrease in intensity and coverage with eastward extend.
As a result, only looking at isolated to scattered showers with
perhaps a rumble of thunder reaching the Adirondacks and western
Mohawk Valley. The extra clouds and light southerly wind will
keep temperatures mainly in the 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will continue to push eastward across the region
on Independence Day. A shower or two may linger into the morning
hours. Instability redevelops ahead of the front with the
potential for SBCAPE values to reach around 500 J/kg or greater
along with 30 to 40 kt of 0-6km shear. The presence of an upper-
level shortwave within the vicinity of the front will aid in
the development of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Areas near or to the south of Albany will be most
favored for this activity based on the expected
location/orientation of the front. Less activity is expected
farther north. While a stronger storm cannot be ruled out,
severe weather is generally not expected at this time. However,
precipitable water values above 1.50 inches could result in
some locally heavy downpours in any thunderstorm. Otherwise, it
will become more humid with highs in the 80s in the valleys and
upper 70s to lower 80s across the higher elevations.

The front will drop near or just to the south of our area
Thursday night with showers and thunderstorms tapering off
except perhaps across far southern areas. Muggy conditions
continue with lows falling back into the 60s to lower 70s. The
front will gradually lift back northward as a warm front Friday
into Friday night as a low pressure system tracks northeastward
across the Great Lakes region. Additional upper-level shortwave
energy will result in additional showers and thunderstorms,
especially late in the day Friday into Friday night. Highs
Friday look to reach the mid to upper 80s in the valleys and the
upper 70s to lower 80s across the higher elevations. Lows
Friday night will fall back into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will be moving from the northern
Great Lakes across Ontario and Quebec on Saturday. At the
surface, a frontal boundary will be approaching our area from
the west. Our region should be within the storm`s warm sector,
allowing for a warm and humid air mass to be in place. Models
suggest sufficient instability will be in place to allow for a
decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday,
especially for the afternoon hours and for areas closer to the
upper level forcing (areas north of west of the Capital Region).
Will go with likely POPs over much of the area on Saturday,
although it won`t be a wash out by any means and some areas
could stay dry. Dewpoints look rather muggy in the 70s. With the
warm/humid air mass and nearby upper level dynamics, there
could be some stronger storms around, although the coverage of
strong storms is still in question. Although clouds may limit
some of the heating, most areas should reach well into the 80s
on Saturday.

Behind the surface front, temps only cool slightly, and temps
aloft should recover rather quickly. While Sunday looks rain-
free for most of the area, it still be warm with highs and in
the 80s and dewpoints (while lower than Saturday) will still be
muggy in the mid to upper 60s. A stray shower is possible for
northern areas, but Sunday definitely looks like the more rain-
free day of the weekend.

High pressure should allow for another rain-free day on Monday
as well. Temps still look above normal with highs well into the
80s and muggy dewpoints in the 60s. The next disturbance looks
to arrive by Tuesday, with another round of diurnally- forced
convection in the afternoon and evening hours. It will continue
to be rather warm and sticky with above normal temps in the mid
to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through the day today, flying conditions will be VFR with no
precip. A batch of mid and high level clouds will pass over the
area this morning, resulting in bkn cigs around 15-20 kft. Calm
winds early this morning will become southerly and increase to
around 10 kts by the late morning for all sites. A few higher
gusts are possible at times as well. There may be some more
breaks in the clouds by this afternoon with continued VFR
conditions and some diurnal cu will develop in the afternoon as
well.

As the next frontal system approaches, mid level clouds will
lower and thicken this evening. While the first part of tonight
should be dry, a stray shower can`t be ruled out by the second
half of the overnight. Will just mention a VCSH for now since
coverage is still looking fairly isolated to scattered with bkn
cigs around 3500-7000 ft expected by later in the overnight
hours. Winds will decrease somewhat tonight, but will still be 5
to 10 kts for all sites.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis