935
FNUS53 KAPX 241911
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
311 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...Showers and Storms Develop Late Tonight...

.DISCUSSION...

A fast-moving low pressure system will enter the Western Great
Lakes tonight. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase
from west to east late tonight and will continue into Tuesday
morning. A few storms may be severe. The most likely threats with
any storms that initiate will be gusty winds, hail, and heavy
rain. High pressure then builds in to promote dryer weather for
mid-week.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-250815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
311 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
                    midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.41 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter...except 12 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (587).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.28 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (53).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 9 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (529).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-250815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
311 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (31).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.21 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms until 1200, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (690).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.27 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 77-82 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (43).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (588).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-250815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
311 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
                    midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.13- 0.43 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (568).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.21 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 80-85 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (49).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (515).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-250815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
311 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (28).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.17- 0.43 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 74-79 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (648).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.21 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 5 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (42).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (727).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-250815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
311 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (33).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.28 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (891).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.16 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (794).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...NOT AS WARM. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

NSC