463
AXNT20 KNHC 240519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jun 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 15N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is along 44W, south of 13N,
moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are observed near the
trough axis.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are evident near the
trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 16N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is enhancing the storm activity
over Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of the wave axis south
of 14N, affecting Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 07N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 08N43W and then from 08N45W to 08N56W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from
04N to 12N and east of 23W and from 05N to 12N and between 46W and
55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Invest 93L is along the coast of Tamaulipas and continues to
produce a small area of showers near the center. The remainder of
the Gulf of Mexico is under generally dry conditions. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring in
the western Gulf in association with Invest 93L. In the remainder
of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, 1007 MB low pressure along the coast of
Tamaulipas is forecast to dissipate by Mon morning, with marine
conditions quickly improving there. Moderate winds and slight seas
prevail E of 90W and will diminish to gentle to moderate
overnight and to light to gentle speeds through Wed. Weak high
pressure will reside over the E central Gulf Tue through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue to
enhance the showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Greater
Antilles and surrounding waters. Similar convection is noted off
NW Colombia, off eastern Yucatan and NE Caribbean, also affecting
the Leeward Islands. An expansive subtropical ridge centered
between Bermuda and the Azores extends southwestward into the
Caribbean Sea. The ridge is forcing fresh to locally strong
easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite
pass. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, the W Atlantic ridge extends along 32N-33N to
offshore of NE Florida. Moderate to fresh trade winds will
continue across the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon
night, pulsing to strong speeds at night near the coast over the
south-central basin. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas are
expected to prevail across the western basin through the week,
except for winds pulsing to strong speeds at night in the Gulf
of Honduras through Mon. Fresh to strong trades will accompany a
tropical wave moving across the eastern basin Tue through early
Wed and across the central basin Wed through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms impacting the central
and NW Bahamas and surrounding waters. In the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic, Saharan dust and subsidence allow for drier
conditions.

An expansive subtropical ridge is centered between Bermuda and
the Azores. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of
4-6 ft are occurring north of 30N and west of 77W. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in
the deep tropics sustain fresh to locally strong NE-E winds south
of 25N and between 30W and 60W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft,
with the highest seas occurring near 11N47W. Moderate to fresh NE
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present east of 30W. Elsewhere in the
basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, an Atlantic ridge extends westward
along 32N-33N to offshore of NE Florida. Fresh southerly winds
and moderate seas will prevail across the waters N of 29N and W of
75W through Mon as low pressure across the SE U.S. moves
northward. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail
elsewhere across the region through Wed, becoming SE to S winds W
of 65W. High pressure north of the region will build SW into the
NW Bahamas tonight through Tue, then shift NE and weaken through
Thu. Winds and seas will increase across the waters E of the
Lesser Antilles early Mon through midday Tue associated with the
passage of a tropical wave.

$$
Delgado