451
FXUS61 KBGM 022303
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
703 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle east of the area tonight, allowing
breezy south to southwesterly flow to develop on Wednesday. A
weakening front moving through the area Wednesday night into
Thursday morning will bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms with it. These will mostly settle south of the
area for Independence Day, but another system will bring
additional showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update...

Not much to update at this time with the current forecast
remaining on track on this quiet evening. Blended in the latest
obs over the next several hours, and did take out some patchy
valley fog that was in this evening, as if any develops it would
be later on tonight. Confidence on the valley fog overnight and
early tomorrow is low due to the higher dewpoint depressions
expected combined with mid and high level clouds that will
continue to stream in from the west-northwest.

320 PM Update...
Some high clouds will continue to spill over an upper level
ridge over the area tonight, as surface high pressure drifts
east of the area. Temperatures will cool down into the
middle-50s for most of the area tonight, and some valley fog is
possible, though likely not as widespread as this past morning,
as dewpoint depressions will be a little higher.

High pressure will settle east of New England on Wednesday, with
return south to southwest flow becoming a little breezy in the
afternoon. A weak cold front will approach western NY/PA late
in the afternoon, with some increasing mid-level clouds across
our area. Any showers or thunderstorms look to hold off until
the evening hours, and even then will be confined to the western
Finger Lakes.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will pass through the area
Wednesday night. They`ll be weakening as upper level support
looks limited, with just weak disturbances embedded in quasi-
zonal flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

A weak cold front will move through Central NY and NE PA
Thursday, bringing chances for rain showers and storms mainly in
the morning through the afternoon, but chances look to improve
heading towards the evening hours. For those looking to the
skies for nighttime light shows on Thursday, skies will remain
mostly cloudy from the Twin Tiers/Catskills southward, and
partly to mostly cloudy for Central NY. Temperatures are
expected in the mid to upper 80s on Thursday as well.

For Friday, slight chances for showers and storms linger with
the unsettled pattern, but chances begin to increase as a warm
front pushes northward into the region Friday evening.
Temperatures expected to be in the mid to high 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 PM Update...

A cold front will be close behind the aforementioned warm front,
moving in Saturday morning, continuing the chances for showers
and storms through the day. 0-6 km shear increases to up to 40
to 50 knots, and the positioning of this front could bring
training showers and storms. Any training showers or storms
could cause localized flash flooding. Additionally, CAPE values
also increase to 1000-1500 J/kg heading into Saturday afternoon,
leading to increased confidence of the potential development of
strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon. It`s a few days out
still, so we`ll keep monitoring storm potential for Saturday.
Heading into early next week, Sunday and Monday look drier,
while the next, and very much disorganized, system approaches
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

High pressure is over the region with VFR conditions expected
through the period. Winds will increase tomorrow morning and
gusts over 20 knots will be possible out of the south.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...More unsettled pattern with
chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...DK/MPH
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPK