188
FXUS63 KBIS 030524
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1224 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for showers and
  thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night,
  highest in the southwest where a few stronger storms are
  possible.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely on Independence
  Day, but the entire day should not be a washout.

- Slightly below normal temperatures will continue through the
  holiday weekend, with highs mainly in the 70s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Minimal changes were made with this forecast update. The showers
continue to slowly erode away, with one small cluster in Dunn County
remaining. Mostly high clouds remain across the area, along with
light westerly winds. Just blended the current observations into the
forecast.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have greatly diminished in coverage
this evening. At 945 PM CDT, just one lone thunderstorm remained
over southeast McHenry County, moving southeast toward Harvey.
From that storm, a line of isolated showers extended west to
along Lake Sakakawea and through McKenzie County to near Sidney,
MT. Farther south, lighter showers have all but dissipated
along and south of Interstate 94 and west of the Missouri River,
with the exception of the far southwest corner of the state,
south of Highway 12. We expect the diminishing trend to
continue into the overnight hours, and aside from the northern
James River Valley/southwest Devils Lake Basin area, lightning
should no longer be a concern. Our forecast reflects a slower
decrease in PoPs in western North Dakota compared to central,
given upstream radar trends in eastern Montana.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 709 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

At 700 PM CDT, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms was
located from western McLean County to near Hettinger, moving east-
southeast. Isolated wind gusts near 50 mph have been associated with
this line for the past couple hours. The showers and storms may
persist at their current intensity and pace for the next hour or
two, but should not strengthen any further, before dissipating
around sunset time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Temperatures this week will remain near average (upper 70s,
lower 80s) with daily chances of non-severe showers and
thunderstorms.

Currently a stacked low sits north of Minnesota in Canada.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed in the cyclonic
flow in the Dakotas around the low. A few of them have some
lightning strikes with them, otherwise expect mostly quick shots
of rain and gusty winds. More showers will likely move in from
Montana this evening. These will continue until the diurnal
heating relaxes around sunset. With a surface high pressure to
our southwest, skies will also clear overnight and remain mostly
sunny Wednesday until the evening when an open wave moves
through aloft. Most CAMs have popcorn storms like this
afternoon. There will be more CAPE available, around 1000 J/kg,
with 30kts of shear in the far southwest. So there is a small
chance a storm could go severe for a short time in the southwest
or the far south central tier of counties in the early evening.
The SPC has a marginal for Bowman, Adams, and Sioux Counties.
However the chances seem to be very low.

Independence Day could be fairly wet during the morning and
afternoon. The NBM has 60-80 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms, but they are looking to be popcorn showers once
again. If you try to keep your outside plans be sky aware,
especially with lightning. Lightning can strike several miles
away from the storm. After 7pm CT, the chances for storm
decreases greatly so firework shows may still happen.

Another stacked low looks to form over Nebraska and move into
Minnesota Thursday night into Friday. This will bring our next
chance (30%) of showers and thunderstorms. Then again Saturday
as a clipper system clips the state. A slight shortwave then
moves through Sunday bringing another chance (30%) to the north
and east. The start of next week looks dry as a general ridging
pattern will be over the western half of the CONUS. Temperatures
look to remain in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions are present across all terminals, and are expected to
prevail through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds of up to 12 kts
are expected through the daytime hours today. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms return during the afternoon and evening hours,
with the greatest chances across the west, near KXWA and KDIK. These
chances will decrease heading into the overnight hours.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Besson
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Besson