Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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395 FXUS64 KBMX 251946 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 246 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 107 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024 The 700mb portion of the ridge is centered just west of Central Alabama this afternoon, and we have a very hot and dry airmass across the area. Dewpoints have mixed efficiently into the upper 50s to mid 60s which is resulting in RH ranging from 25 to 35 percent as temperatures have risen into the mid 90s. Based on the trends, we`re aiming for another afternoon of highs in the upper 90s with some triple digit readings certainly possible amidst sunny skies. Unfortunately, the miserable heat continues. Short term models have really come into better agreement this morning on a brief breakdown in the ridge tomorrow as a low to mid- level trough moves across the region. A complex of thunderstorms is progged to develop along a cold front over the Midwest tomorrow morning and quickly advance south into the Midsouth region. Strong outflow driven storms will move into northern Mississippi by midday with additional thunderstorms expected to develop across western portions of Central Alabama during the afternoon as moisture increases dramatically with the trough axis. In fact, PWATs will increase from ~1-1.25" in the morning up to ~2" by the afternoon. It appears that convection will spread eastward, but with decreasing intensity and coverage as we move into the later part of the day, so still expecting hot temperatures, especially for areas generally east of I-65. The evolution of this thunderstorm complex and related nearby convective development is difficult to pinpoint at the moment given the mesoscale variability in this summertime pattern, but could see some potential for strong winds in these storms, mainly west of I-65 where they will be mostly outflow driven. Although progged wind shear values are weak, if model trends continue to favor some cold-pool driven storms across our west, then a risk of severe storms with damaging wind potential may need to be advertised in the forecast. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 229 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024 The breakdown of the upper ridge (or, its retrograde into the southwestern states) will be fairly brief. After the passage of the upper shortwave trough and associated convective system Wednesday night and Thursday, global models bring the upper ridge center back east of the Rockies from Friday through the remainder of the long term. This puts central Alabama back into a typical mesoscale diurnally driven summertime pattern. That means POPs of 40 to 60 percent on days where the ridge center is more in the southern plains, and 20 to 30 percent on days where the ridge center edges eastward into the southern Mississippi Valley and Southeast states. Unless we get more rain than expected in the short term, then ground conditions will continue to become increasingly dry enough to support daytime temperatures in the mid/upper 90s by this weekend into (at least) early next week. /61/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024 Clear skies are in place across Central Alabama this afternoon. Stable conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow morning as the ridge axis shifts east over the area with some increasing high cloud cover overnight. Flow is generally weak from the north at around 5 kts or less. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry conditions will continue through tonight. Moisture begins to increase from the west on Wednesday, but RH values in East Alabama will still drop into the 28 to 35 percent range. Chances for showers and storms will return from the west on Wednesday. Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected Thursday into the weekend, with the highest coverage in the southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 67 99 69 93 / 0 20 50 50 Anniston 69 98 71 90 / 0 20 40 60 Birmingham 74 99 72 93 / 0 40 50 50 Tuscaloosa 74 96 71 91 / 0 60 60 50 Calera 72 98 72 93 / 0 40 50 60 Auburn 72 96 73 92 / 0 20 20 60 Montgomery 71 98 72 93 / 0 40 40 70 Troy 72 97 71 93 / 0 30 30 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM..../61/ AVIATION...86