Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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231 FXUS64 KBMX 241748 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1248 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2024 Most areas south of Birmingham received beneficial rain early this morning, some more than others. Radar estimates show pockets of higher amounts up to 1 to 2 inches while some areas received a few hundredths. The cold front is draped east to west just south of Birmingham, and the remnant showers are now drifting south of the forecast area. Temperatures have some catching up to do across our south where readings are currently still in the 80s. However this is where the highest moisture content is located and dewpoints are in the mid 70s, so heat indices are already near 100F. Drier air is quickly filtering in from the north, so there will be some mixing again this afternoon, but probably not as much in our south where some areas could experience heat indices up to 105F. It will be hot across the board with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Ridging retakes control tomorrow with northerly flow continuing to supply dry air to the region. Unfortunately, it looks to be one of the hottest days so far, and there`s a chance we could see some 100 degree readings out there. Dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s should prevent us from reaching Heat Advisory criteria. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 244 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2024 Key messages: - Rain chances have decreased somewhat and high temperatures have increased on Wednesday, but scattered showers and storms are still expected with some strong storms with gusty winds possible especially in West Alabama. - Heat indices at or above 105 degrees will be possible Friday through the weekend. Height falls will take place on Wednesday as one shortwave moves through the Great Lakes and a weaker shortwave in northwest flow aloft moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Due to the stubborn dry air mass over our area, the higher rain/MCS chances continue to trend westward, even west of our forecast area. Still, given the shortwave and height falls and increasing moisture over West Alabama, at least scattered showers and storms are expected with higher coverage possible if any cold pools can organize. Temperatures have trended upward as well, but with the lower dew points expect heat indices to remain below 105 on Wednesday. Shear and mid-level lapse rates will be weak, with instability dropping off as you go eastward into the dry air. But given the dry air aloft and hot temperatures at the surface, some strong storms with gusty winds/microbursts will be possible if the storms can get going and cold pools can form. Will monitor the mesoscale trends to see if any isolated severe storms can develop. A positively tilted trough will extend from the Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle on Thursday, while ridging begins to build back to the east across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Dry air aloft will be advecting in from the northwest as a surface frontal boundary washes out. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible especially in our southeast counties closer to the better moisture. Highs will "only" be in the middle 90s in most locations. Strong subtropical ridging builds back in over the Southeast Friday through the weekend. This will result in hot temperatures continuing. Most areas remain dry Friday, but PWATs increase over the weekend with weak low-level southerly flow. This means that unlike the previous ridge there will be some potential for diurnal convection which could impact highs in some spots. Also, this will result in higher dew points meaning there will be increasing chances for heat indices at or above 105 degrees. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2024 A line of showers has moved south of the TAF sites, and VFR conditions will continue through this cycle. The cold front will continue to progress southward with northerly sfc winds at 5 to 8 kts behind the front. Winds will go calm tonight with clear skies. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered showers and a storm or two will be possible across the southern half of the area. Drier air arrives behind the front. For today, minimum RH values will range from 30-40 percent for much of the area, and 40-45 percent across the southern third of the area. On Tuesday, minimum RH values of 24-35 percent are possible. Overnight RH values recover to above 70 percent tonight and Tuesday night. Isolated storms may be possible across the far south on Tuesday, with better chances on Wednesday and Thursday. 20ft winds will be from the northwest today and north on Tuesday, at less than 8 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 64 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 30 Anniston 66 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 30 Birmingham 71 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 40 Tuscaloosa 70 99 73 95 / 0 0 10 50 Calera 70 100 72 97 / 0 0 0 40 Auburn 71 97 72 96 / 0 0 0 30 Montgomery 71 99 72 97 / 0 0 10 40 Troy 71 98 71 97 / 0 10 10 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....32 AVIATION...86/Martin