327
FXUS64 KBMX 061118
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
618 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

A weak front associated with the trough over the region will move
south today through 1/2 to 2/3 of the area. This system will stall
across the southern zones and then begin to lift back on Sunday.
Look for highs to be low to mid 90s across the area. However
dewpoints will be less in the north so the Heat Advisory will be for
generally the southeast. Since conditions really do not change much
at all on Sunday, went ahead and extended the advisory through
Sunday 9 PM. As for rain coverage look for the highest chances to be
in the south and southeast ahead of the weak front. Plenty of
instability will be available to support thunderstorms each day.
With weak flow the storms will be slow to move, so localized
flooding/ponding will be possible.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the Texas Gulf Coast on
Monday. This will coincide with southerly/southwesterly low- to mid-
level flow which will support moisture advection from the
northern Gulf Coast toward the Tennessee Valley. As such, PWs will
increase to near 2.0" or above area-wide Monday afternoon,
complementing diurnal instability which should foster scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms as temperatures increase to
the low 90s. Ample moisture will linger in the area on Tuesday,
and potentially increase further, as Beryl moves into eastern
Texas. Some guidance depicts PWs rising as high as 2.5". As a
result, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
forecast once again for Tuesday afternoon, particularly as heights
begin a slow decrease in association with Beryl devolving to an
open-wave trough to our west. PoPs are ~70% for Tue. Thereafter,
Beryl should transition to the northeast, moving toward the TN and
OH Valleys. PoPs are on a slight decrease (still ~50%) owing to
the potential for a "dry slot" depicted in guidance Wed afternoon.
Nonetheless, with Beryl in the region, we`ll need to watch other
supportive factors for local impacts. The overall scenario
supports locally heavy rainfall in strongest showers/storms, and
there`s some signal for low-topped, rotating thunderstorms in the
region Tue/Wed should low- to mid-level wind fields east of
Beryl`s circulation remain intact and strong enough. Just
something to keep an eye on. Beryl`s remnants lift to our north
thereafter, and it`s a routine summer forecast for Thu/Fri.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Low ceilings and some patchy fog are in place across most of the
area but should burn off by 14 to 16z. The airmass remains moist
through the day today, so scattered to numerous showers and storms
will be possible. Included Prob30 at all sites after 19 to 21z,
but the highest chances will be at MGM this afternoon. Showers may
linger to around 3z before dissipating. Will need to monitor the
trends and see if the low clouds and fog will be possible again.
The pattern supports low clouds once again at MGM but guidance is
holding off for now.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The region remains amidst a period of hot and humid weather that
is forecast to continue the next several days. This will provide
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with elevated humidity
levels. Winds generally remain light and variable through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  69  94  72 /  30  10  30  20
Anniston    93  72  92  74 /  50  20  40  30
Birmingham  93  74  93  75 /  40  10  40  20
Tuscaloosa  93  72  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
Calera      93  74  92  75 /  50  20  50  30
Auburn      91  74  91  74 /  70  40  70  40
Montgomery  93  74  92  74 /  70  40  70  40
Troy        93  73  92  73 /  70  40  70  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Sunday for the
following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Dallas-
Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore
AVIATION...16