263
FXUS65 KBOU 131735
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1135 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer with isolated showers and thunderstorms across the high
  country this afternoon. Similar pattern again for Monday.

- Afternoon showers/thunderstorms to continue most days for the
  upcoming week. Best chance of rain across the plains comes
  Wednesday.

- High temperatures to linger in the 90s across the plains
  through mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

This morning`s (Saturday) low clouds have finally scattered out
across the forecast area and a Denver Cyclone has developed. Current
satellite imagery shows some cumulus starting to build along the
higher terrain, with a few weak reflectivity returns starting to
show in northern Park/western Jefferson Counties where surface
heating has been greatest so far today. With enough instability in
place as shown by the 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE shown in the SPC
Meso Analysis, these cumulus are expected to transition into
scattered showers and storms by early this afternoon. With a
prominent cap in place across the lower elevations as portrayed
in the latest ACARS sounding, these showers and storms won`t have
much luck of persisting onto the lower elevations where CAPE is
far more robust. However, with WNW to NNW steering flow in place,
storms that form will have potential to move along the higher
terrain where the cap is already broken, and we could see an
isolated threat for severe hail and some gusty outflows through
the early evening. With the cyclone in place, there is a chance
that the convergence zone could aid in breaking the cap along the
Palmer Divide and slightly north onto the adjacent plains where
the more robust CAPE will be in play, but have kept the greatest
PoPs south and west of the urban corridor where guidance continues
to portray things staying along and south of I-70 in the
mountains and foothills.

Light NNW flow aloft will persist into Sunday as the ridge over
the southwest remains in place. Instability will increase over the
mountains as forecast soundings show SBCAPE reaching 700-800 J/kg
and mid-level lapse rates steepening to 9+C/km by the afternoon.
This will promote scattered afternoon and evening convection, with
showers and storms expected to remain anchored to the higher
terrain. Temperatures will return to the 90s across the lower
elevations on Sunday and persist there through the first half of
the week.

Models are fairly consistent for the first half of the week,
keeping pulses of afternoon mountain convection each day, becoming
more widespread by Tuesday. Some discrepancies with timing of a
shortwave trough entering the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday are
evident between the ensembles, with the GFS supporting a cooldown
on Tuesday/Wednesday, whereas the ECM ens keeps an extra day of
90F+ for the plains, seeing a cooldown for Wednesday/Thursday
instead. The NBM seemed like a reasonable solution based on the
differences, so little changes were made past Monday for this
package. While the timing may be off, the signal is in place that
a brief cooldown will occur by mid-week. Past that, ensembles show
that the 90s will return and look to stick around across the
plains through at least the last week of July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 955 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds are expected
to continue to make their way to the east through the afternoon
before making their way to the southeast this evening. Guidance
suggests a few hours of gusty S/SE winds (15 to 25 kt) at
KDEN/KAPA late tonight (5Z to 8Z), so winds were increased
slightly to account for this. It`s worth mentioning that some hi-
res guidance has been inconsistent between runs this morning
leading to some uncertainties and lowered confidence for this
evening`s forecast. Guidance hints at potential for dissipating
showers and thunderstorms to drop 35 to 45 kt microbursts across
all TAF sites as they move off the higher terrain. At this point,
confidence is too low to include in the TAF (~20%), but this will
be monitored closely as the day progresses and introduced into the
TAF if confidence increases.


For tomorrow, drainage looks to hold on through the morning before
returning to the southeast for the afternoon at KDEN/KAPA. KBJC is
expected to keep light and VRB winds through the early morning,
turning towards the NE late morning. Have introduced a PROB30 for
afternoon high-based convection potentially bringing strong
outflows and microbursts late afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bonner
AVIATION...Bonner