559
FXUS61 KBOX 271822
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
222 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and pleasant weather conditions develop today as a high
pressure briefly builds in. A more humid and more active
weekend is in store as a slow-moving frontal system brings
periods of showers and thunderstorms, with localized downpours
possible. Drier weather then returns for early next week with
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No whole sale changes to the forecast, the showers are now well
off shore with lingering lower clouds across Cape Cod and the
Islands. Do think they will breakout into sunshine over the next
hour or two. Dew point temperatures continue to fall, already in
the upper 50s across northern Massachusetts, still holding on to
some humidity along the coast as dew points are low/mid 60s, all
though those will continue to fall this afternoon.

A side note: NWS Boston/Norton is conducting a storm survey in
the communities of Cumberland/Lincoln, Rhode Island and in North
Attleborough, Massachusetts. We will share our findings later
this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...

A cold front across southeast MA and the adjacent coastal
waters moves farther offshore today. Any lingering showers or
thunderstorms are expected to clear the MA coast by mid morning.
It may be closer to noon for it to clear the coastal waters
southeast of MA.

The main theme for today will be lower humidity with clearing
skies. Temperatures across the interior expected to be
generally be 5-8 degrees lower than yesterday. With the front
taking longer to clear southeast New England, and the influence
of the ocean, temperatures expected to be rather similar.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
High pressure expected to dominate our weather tonight and
Friday. Mainly clear skies with near normal temperatures and
comfortable humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights:

* More active for this weekend, with periods of showers and
  thunderstorms associated with a slow-moving frontal system.
  Heavy downpours appear to be the greatest risk, but it is
  uncertain if any storm(s) may become strong/severe.

* High pressure returns Monday and Tuesday.

* A warm front should approach Wednesday, starting a warming
  trend with increasing humidity.


A high pressure should eventually move offshore Saturday,
opening the door for a return to heat and tropical humidity
hading into Sunday. A slow moving-cold front is expected to
cross southern New England some time from late Sunday into
Sunday night. Ahead of this front, looking at another round of
showers and possible thunderstorms. The main concern at this
time remains localized downpours, but cannot yet completely
rule out the threat of strong gusty thunderstorm winds. Thinking
there is at least a high probability for some rainfall during
this time.

Near to slightly below normal temperatures with lower humidity
and dry weather anticipated for Monday and Tuesday, as a
high pressure moves through southern New England.
Wednesday still looking mostly dry, despite the approach of a
warm front which could trigger some showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00z... High confidence.

VFR. Low chance of a spot shower, though the vast majority of the
afternoon is dry. West/northwest wind 10 to 14 knots and occasional
gusts 20 to 25 knots.

Tonight... High confidence.

VFR. Dry. Northwest to north/northwest, winds 5 to 10 knots, with
winds of 10 to 13 knots for terminals on Cape Cod and islands.

Friday... Moderate confidence.

VFR, scattered cu around 5-7 all though dry. High pressure settles
in with variable wind conditions while the flow is out of the west,
there is a chance for winds to become south during the late morning
with low confidence in sea breeze development. Will reassess this
afternoon/evening update.

Friday Night... High confidence.

VFR. Perhaps a spot shower across western MA/CT prior to sunrise
with southwest winds less than 10 knots.

KBOS TAF... Moderate confidence in TAF after 12z Friday.

VFR. Dry. W to NW wind tonight into early Friday, low confidence in
a local sea breeze developing by late morning. Will reassess during
the 00z TAF issuance.

KBDL TAF... High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA
likely, slight chance TSRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Saturday morning...

Cold front moves off shore and high pressure moves in from the west
which will ease seas and wind gusts. Dry conditions prevail during
this time with patchy areas of marine fog possible southeast of
Nantucket.

West to northwest winds between 10 to 20 knots overnight, becoming
lighter from the north by daybreak. Friday, there is a low chance of
onshore winds developing during the afternoon along the south coast,
eventually going south to southwest overnight into Saturday morning.

Residual seas at 5 ft for the outer southern waters this afternoon
and settles around 2-3 ft off shore and 1-2 ft near shore Friday
into Saturday morning.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely, slight
chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk
NEAR TERM...Belk/Dooley
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Dooley
MARINE...Dooley