628
FXUS64 KBRO 232339 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
639 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The major player for the short term forecast will the elongated mid-
level ridge over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. With
the subsidence in place over the area brining dry and stable air,
the environment will not be favorable for the development of showers
and thunderstorms during the short term period. Although there is a
bit of recovery for the PWAT values during the day tomorrow, the
best chance for any rainfall will be along with the sea breeze in
the afternoon. Even then, the rain chances are expected to be
isolated at best. With the greatest chances occurring along the
coast.

As for temperatures, the highs temperatures for tomorrow are
expected to be around the mid 90s. The heat indices are expected to
be a little higher around 105 to 107. This is still below the
criteria for a Special Weather Statement for elevated heat indices
and Heat Advisory. The low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow are
expected to be in the 70s.

Lastly, while the rip current risk is low for the short term
forecast period. Wave run up along the beaches could reduce the
available beach space down. While not expecting to need Coastal
Flood Advisory at this point. Further shifts will have to keep an
eye to see if a Coastal Flood Statement might be needed around high
tides.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

By Wednesday morning, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine should
strengthen to a tropical depression or storm as it enters the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, an upper level trough/low over
the Central Plains will translate east and send a cold front
southward. Unsettled weather is expected on Wednesday as the
boundary approaches Deep South Texas and encounters modest
instability and high moisture content. Precipitable water values
are expected to approach 1.9 to 2.0 inches by Wednesday afternoon
along the immediate coast, which is where the highest PoPs will
reside. Low precipitation chances will linger Wednesday night into
Thursday, but the arrival of a slightly drier airmass should
bring rain chances to an end region wide by Thursday afternoon.
While noticeably cooler temperatures are not expected with the
passage of the cold front, lower dew points and humidity will
result in lower heat indices Thursday afternoon, with heat indices
mostly in the mid 90s.

Meanwhile, along the Lower Texas beaches and Gulf waters, the
passage of the cold front and the increased swells from the
tropical system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will result in
increased wave heights. This will lead to an increased risk of rip
currents and minor coastal flooding along the lower Texas beaches
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
generally light easterly winds. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon
from east to west along a sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Tonight through Tuesday Night...Mostly favorable conditions thanks
to a weak pressure gradient allowing for light to moderate onshore
flow and low to moderate seas. Some isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible through the period and could result in
locally elevated winds and seas.

Wednesday through next Monday...Generally favorable marine
conditions will prevail through Wednesday night, but will
deteriorate beginning Thursday due to an approaching cold front
and increasing swell associated with a tropical system in the
Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small
Craft Advisory conditions will likely continue through the end of
the week, before favorable conditions return over the weekend and
into early next week. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday may result in locally enhanced winds
and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  91  76  90 /  20  30  30  50
HARLINGEN               75  91  73  91 /  10  30  20  50
MCALLEN                 78  94  77  94 /  10  30  20  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         75  94  75  93 /  10  20  20  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  88  80  87 /  30  30  40  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  89  75  89 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...56-Hallman