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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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348 FXUS64 KBRO 010740 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 240 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 KBRO Doppler radar shows convection exiting the BRO CWFA at this time. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast for extreme southern Hidalgo County today due to lingering decent precipitable water values and the westward progression of weakening Tropical Storm Chris into east- central Mexico, while the remainder of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley remains dry. Rain-free conditions will persist tonight and through Tuesday as 500 mb high pressure, centered over the Gulf Coast states, strengthens. Temperature-wise, with the aforementioned mid-level high gaining strength, and dry weather with limited cloud cover occurring, daytime highs will inch-up a bit and remain in the slightly above normal range. Despite the relatively robust precipitable water content of around 2 inches, more or less, heat indices will not reach established HEAT ADVISORY criteria. As a result, will mention heat index values in a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT today and likely again tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The mid-level ridge remains anchored across the Southeast into next weekend, before gradually shifting off the East Coast, with surface high pressure building mid-this week and persisting into next weekend across much of the northern Gulf. This will generally lead to a fairly dry and gradually warming start to the long term period across Deep South Texas, with an increasing chance of rainfall next weekend and slightly lower temperatures. A few Heat Indices may approach 110 degrees each afternoon Wednesday through Friday. An isolated streamer or sea breeze shower or thunderstorm cant be ruled out each day as well, but the best chance of rain remains Saturday into Sunday. The NBM POPs are currently 20 percent near the coast on Saturday and 30 percent on Sunday. All eyes are really on Days 5-7 and beyond, with Hurricane Beryl potentially lurking somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. At this time, it is still too early to lean one way or another, with a wide spread in model guidance. General consensus among the experts at the National Hurricane Center is Beryl will run into some wind shear and likely downgrade before approaching the Yucatan late Thursday into Friday. We may not know much more than that until Thursday or Friday. Stay tuned to credible sources of information this week like hurricanes.gov. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Convection is ending across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, and MVFR to VFR will prevail through the overnight hours. On Monday, VFR will prevail with light winds. Convection cannot be ruled out, but it is forecast to be too isolated to warrant inclusion in the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Today through Tuesday...Buoy 42020 reported east-southeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly over 6 feet at 2:10 CDT/7:10 UTC. The Small Craft Advisory for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore until 7 AM CDT this morning has been cancelled a few hours early, as Buoy 42020 indicates subsiding seas. Otherwise, light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas are forecast along the Lower Texas Coast through the period courtesy of high pressure. Tuesday Night through Sunday...High pressure builds across the Gulf mid-week and persists through the remainder of the week before weakening over the weekend. Expect generally light to moderate southeasterly onshore flow and low seas through Friday with isolated streamer showers or convection at best. Beyond that, all eyes remain on Hurricane Beryl, potentially somewhere into the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. This could increase winds, seas, and rain chances by Saturday. Stay tuned to credible sources of information this week like hurricanes.gov. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 94 79 95 80 / 20 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 95 75 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 96 78 98 79 / 20 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 95 77 98 78 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 88 83 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 77 92 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...66-Tomaselli