627
FXUS61 KCAR 242352
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
752 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will cross over the waters tonight. High pressure
will return on Tuesday. A warm front will cross the region
Tuesday night. A cold front will approach Wednesday, then cross
the region Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will
cross the region Friday into Saturday. A cold front will
approach later Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Update...
Made minor adjustments to pops based on current conditions.
Not seeing much in the way of lightning in our area, thus
trimmed back mention of thunder to only include extreme western
areas.

See updated aviation section below.

previous discussion
Sfc low continues to sit and spin over the Downeast coast. Low
clouds are very slowly clearing acrs the north and will likely
continue to do so this evening as lopres sinks south over the
waters. Expecting skies to clear over the north right around
daybreak with patchy fog developing as winds become light and
variable. Light stratiform rain over the north, though honestly
hard to believe much is reaching the ground, will continue to
sink south this evening.

Further to the south convective showers have developed along
boundary over interior Downeast and will continue to pivot over
this area remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening
hours. Have included isolated thunder with locally heavy
rainfall in areas that continue to receive rainfall but overall
threat for this is very low.

Temps will remain above normal mins for tonight, although the
North Woods may be able to drop into the upper 40s depending on
timing of clearing skies. Most of the western zones will see
sunny skies at daybreak tomorrow while southeastern areas will
see showers initially before clearing by noon. High temps over
the area likely to top out in the lwr 80s though the shore will
only rise to around 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface/upper level ridging begin to exit across the Maritimes
Tuesday night while a warm front lifts across the region. Expect
mostly clear skies early, then partly cloudy. A cold front begins to
approach later Wednesday. Expect partly sunny skies along with a
slight chance of showers across northern areas early Wednesday, with
mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Across Downeast areas, expect
partly sunny skies Tuesday along with a slight chance/chance of
afternoon showers. The cold front will cross the region Wednesday
night into Thursday while low pressure forms and moves along the
front. Expect increasing rain chances Wednesday night, with rain
then persisting into early Thursday. Rain tapers to showers later
Thursday. Will also include a slight chance of thunder Wednesday
night into Thursday. Expect above normal level temperatures
Wednesday. Slightly below normal level temperatures are expected
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds toward the region Thursday night with mostly
clear skies. High pressure crosses the region Friday, starting to
exit across the Maritimes later Friday night. Expect mostly clear
skies Friday, then partly cloudy Friday night. High pressure exits
across the Maritimes Saturday, with a cold front approaching
Saturday night though timing differences with the front still exist.
Expect partly cloudy skies early Saturday, with clouds then
increasing during the afternoon. Dependent on the eventual
timing of the front, could also have a slight chance/chance of
showers across mostly western portions of the forecast area
during the afternoon along with the slight chance of a
thunderstorm. The cold front will cross the region Saturday
night into Sunday with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. High
pressure will build toward the region Sunday night, then build
across the region Monday. Expect near normal level temperatures
Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
VFR conditions expected through period, except possibly
MVFR/IFR in patchy fog 07Z thru 10Z, although below average
confidence in occurrence. N wind 5 to 10 kt through Tue.

KBGR/KBHB
MVFR/IFR through 10z due to cigs/patchy fog/vcsh. VFR
thereafter. N wind 5 to 15 Kt, becoming SW late Tue afternoon.

SHORT TERM:

Tuesday night...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south.

Wednesday...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a chance of showers/slight
chance of thunderstorms. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR early, then IFR/LIFR. Rain with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
variable.

Thursday...IFR/LIFR early, then VFR/MVFR. Rain with a slight chance
of thunderstorms early. Decreasing shower chances during the
afternoon. Variable winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest.

Thursday night through Friday night...VFR. Northwest winds 5 to 10
knots Thursday night. Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming
variable Friday. South winds 5 to 10 knots Friday night.

Saturday...VFR early, VFR/MVFR late with a chance of showers along
with a slight chance of thunderstorms. South winds 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas will likely remain elevated over the outer
waters tonight into Tuesday afternoon. Expect seas to diminish
below 5 feet over zone 51 but remain aoa 5 feet over zone 50.
Northerly wind gusts expected to remain below 20kts through the
tomorrow. Visibilities will be reduced in fog tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Small craft advisory conditions
then possible later Wednesday into Thursday. A chance of showers
Wednesday afternoon. Rain with a slight chances of
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Buster
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...TWD/Buster/Norcross
Marine...TWD/Buster/Norcross