263
FXUS61 KCAR 241014
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
614 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will cross the area today into this
evening as a weak surface low tracks along the coast. High
pressure will return on Tuesday then slide south of the region
Wednesday. A cold front will push into the area and stall
Wednesday night as low pressure tracks along the front. High
pressure will approach on Thursday and crest over the area
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:10 AM Update...Showers are primarily clustered across the
north so adjusted pops to reflect more showers north and less
south early this morning. All the models except the HRRR are
suggesting that the concentration of showers should shift to the
south today so pops will decrease to scattered north and
numerous to widespread south later today. Will have to keep
watch on the HRRR runs, and may have to increase pops north
later if the evolution of the shower coverage continues to trend
further north. Also, temps show a distinct boundary between mid
50s north to upper 60s south so adjusted temps early this
morning to reflect this.

One area of low pressure that brought our soaking rain on
Sunday has moved east into the Maritimes. Trailing upper level
low pressure to our west will track east across Western New
England today supporting a weak secondary surface low near the
coast. Most of the forecast guidance is showing a band of
showers with this low mainly across south central areas. The
HRRR, however, is showing another band across the north but
seems to be an outlier. Will carry categorical to likely
showers south and scattered showers north today. Lingering
moisture will result in a mostly cloudy day although the sky may
brighten at times through the midday hours. A few isolated
thunderstorms are possible, mainly south, this afternoon.

Upper level low pressure and the trailing surface low will exit
into the Maritimes late tonight. Any remaining showers will
taper off from west to east and the sky will partially clear
late at night as high pressure begins to build in from the west.
Winds will be light and the moist ground may result in some
patchy fog forming overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the area on
Tuesday, clearing out skies through the day. Rain showers may
linger briefly over Washington county early on Tuesday before
tapering off through the day. Warm temperatures will return with
highs in the low to mid 80s across the forecast area under light
off-shore winds and plenty of incoming solar radiation under
clearing skies.

Cloud cover will begin to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday
as the next low pressure system approaches from the west. A 110
kt jet steak will swing towards the area from the Hudson Bay,
with the forecast area being in an area of subsidence under the
right exit region of the jet streak. This will limit the threat
for showers and storms early in the day on Wednesday even though
the ridge axis will begin working its way into the Canadian
Maritimes at this time. As the system moves closer to the area,
the upper level trough will begin to deepen, pivoting the
strengthening jet streak such that the CWA enters the right
entrance region by Wednesday evening. The resulting increase in
instability leads to the slight chance for thunderstorm
development, especially across the North Woods which will be
closer to the approaching front at this time. Other showers may
begin to develop late Wednesday afternoon as well, with the
greatest chance for Wednesday rain being across the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will continue crossing into the forecast area
Wednesday night, but will begin to slow in forward progress
through the night. As the front begins to stall, a center of low
pressure will ride up along the boundary, persisting the rain
threat over the region through the night. With deep warm cloud
layer forecast over 10 kft, PWATs approaching 1.8 inches and
well above average for this area this time of the year, and
training rain along the stalling boundary, there is an increased
chance (60%) of moderate to heavy rainfall which could result in
localized ponding on roads and flooding in poor drainage areas.

Despite all the favorable heavy rain parameters, CAPE is
forecast to be minimal, and though isolated thunderstorms remain
possible in this synoptic setup, the nocturnal presentation
helps in preventing a more widespread thunder threat. The low
should move out into the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday, with
lingering showers and storms dissipating into Thursday evening.
High pressure will build into the area on Friday, then another
area of low pressure will approach the area on Saturday. The
ridge of high pressure from Saturday will slide off into the
Atlantic, though guidance suggests the high could strengthen
into the weekend, which could slow the currently progressive
pattern. Due to this, the next cold front may not arrive until
Saturday night, or possibly into Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds this morning should
improve to MVFR across the area this afternoon. MVFR to VFR
conditions are likely tonight with the except of some patchy fog
late. Winds today will be light northerly over northern sites
and light southerly near the coast. Winds tonight will be very
light northerly across the area.


SHORT TERM:
Tues - Tues night: VFR across all terminals. Winds N to NW
around 5 kts shifting SW into Tues night.

Wed: Generally VFR across all terminals, with MVFR cigs moving
in to Aroostook terminals from the NW through the day. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms at northern terminals by Wed evening.
Winds SW 5 to 15 kts.

Wed night: IFR in showers and thunderstorms. Winds SW at 5 to
10 kts with higher gusts possible in thunderstorms. Vis could
become LIFR in any heavy rain.

Thurs: Improving to VFR with lingering showers and
thunderstorms possible, dissipating late. Winds NW at 5 to 10
kts.

Thurs night - Fri: VFR across all terminals. Light NW winds
increasing to 5 to 10 kts on Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA will remain up today for the offshore waters
for seas up to 5 ft. Winds should remain just below SCA. Fog
and mist will likely limit visibilities today and tonight.

SHORT TERM: Borderline SCA conditions may linger through the
middle of the week, with seas approaching 5 ft through this time
and winds gusting to 20 kts, becoming seas to 6 ft and gusts to
25 kts with the low pressure system late Wednesday into
Thursday. Conditions will improve and fall below SCA levels by
Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Bloomer/AStrauser
Marine...Bloomer/AStrauser