611
FXUS61 KCAR 232201
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
601 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach and bring a warm front north into
parts of the region tonight. The low will cross the area
tonight and Monday, then exit across the Maritimes Monday
night. High pressure will cross the region Tuesday, with a warm
front crossing Tuesday night. A cold front will approach later
Wednesday, then cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
High pressure will build across the region Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6 PM Update: Rain continues across the northern half of the FA,
but with no hydro issues at this time. Reports of ponding of
water on roads, but not seeing more than about 35% of the 1 or
3 hour flash flood guidance. Storms moving out of NH continue
to weaken as they move east. Shear is impressive, but zero
surface based cape. Not expecting any severe weather, and
convection that survives this evening will become more elevated
with low level inversions across the FA. The only concerns
would be for heavier downpours and lightning, but even lightning
activity right now looks to be isolated at best. Minor tweaks
based on the latest radar trends and observations.

Previous discussion:
Steady rain has lifted into northern areas in association with
H8 front. Amounts of around 1 inch have been reported acrs the
north as of 1930z with some reports of standing water but with
rain beginning to lighten up not expecting any problems.

Several lines of convection have developed over the northeast
ahead of pre-frontal troughs. One moving through Vermont and
into New Hampshire with another back over Upstate NY. The line
moving into NH is what we will need to keep our eye on as the
evening progresses. Hires guidance continues to indicate that as
line moves into more stable airmass it will tend to weaken and
begin to die off this evening. Given current speed it appears to
move into our wrn zones around 22z this evening.

Elevated instability looks to be plentiful enuf to continue
isold thunder acrs the entire region tonight but have not added
in enhanced wording, other than heavy rainfall. Highest rainfall
amounts continue to be advertised acrs the north this evening
and overnight with additional amounts of 0.5-0.75" expected. As
line of convection moves through central areas tonight expect a
quick 0.25" to fall but with progressive nature of storms not
expecting any flooding issues.

Sfc low tracks along quasi-stationary boundary in the morning
keeping showers over central areas with storms developing in the
afternoon, especially as upr low approaches the area. May see a
quick 0.25-0.5" of rain to add to the total rainfall from a
Danforth to Dover-Foxcroft line. Given cloudy skies and showers,
temps acrs the north will remain in the u60s for Monday while
interior Downeast will be able to climb into the mid 70s ahead
of approaching sfc low with cooler temps right along the coast
and on the outer islands due to onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper low crosses the region Monday night, while surface low
pressure crosses the Gulf of Maine. Expect a chance of showers,
possibly an isolated thunderstorm, early Monday night then
decreasing shower chances overnight. Otherwise, expect
mostly/partly cloudy skies overnight. The system exits across
the Maritimes early Tuesday, with ridging then building across
the region late. Could still have a slight chance of showers,
mostly Downeast, with the exiting system early Tuesday.
Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies early with
clouds then decreasing during the afternoon. A warm front should
cross the region Tuesday night with partly cloudy skies. A cold
front will begin to approach later Wednesday. Dependent on the
timing of the approaching front, could have a chance of
showers/thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, expect
generally partly sunny skies with clouds then increasing across
northern areas during the afternoon. Expect above normal level
temperatures Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will cross the region Wednesday night into
Thursday while low pressure forms and moves along the front.
Expect increasing rain chances Wednesday night, with rain then
persisting into early Thursday. Rain tapers to showers later
Thursday. Will also include a slight chance of thunder Wednesday
night into Thursday. The system exits across the Maritimes
Thursday night, with showers ending. High pressure crosses the
region Friday, then begins to exit across the Maritimes Friday
night with partly cloudy skies. High pressure exits across the
Maritimes early Saturday. A cold front should then begin to
cross the region Saturday night, though timing differences still
exist. Dependent on the timing of the front, could have a chance
of showers/thunderstorms across mostly western portions of the
forecast area later Saturday. Expect a chance of
showers/thunderstorms with the cold front Saturday night into
Sunday. Expect near normal level temperatures Thursday through
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR over all terminals tonight with LIFR possible
over Downeast terminals and possibly FVE. Isolated Thunderstorms
will be possible at HUL, BGR and BHB with moderate to heavy
rainfall over northern Aroostook terminals.

BGR and BHB likely to see LLWS through 07z tonight with HUL
tapping into LLWS between 23-02z.

IFR will lift to MVFR during the day Monday. S/SE wind 5 to 15
knots tonight and Sunday, but becoming NE from KHUL N later
tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Monday night...VFR/MVFR. Occasional IFR possible Downeast. A chance
of showers, mostly early. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
north.

Tuesday...Occasional MVFR possible Downeast early with a slight
chance of showers. Otherwise, VFR. North winds 5 to 10 knots,
becoming variable.

Tuesday night...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south.

Wednesday...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a chance of
showers/thunderstorms. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR early, then IFR/LIFR. Rain with a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots,
becoming variable.

Thursday...IFR/LIFR early, then VFR/MVFR. Rain with a slight chance
of thunderstorms early. Decreasing shower chances during the
afternoon. Variable winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots
Thursday night. Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming variable
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have continued small craft advisory for all waters
with an increase in seas expected this evening. The southern
part of the intracoastal zone will see seas around 5ft while the
inner part will mainly range between 2 and 4 feet. Stable layer
will prevent much in the way of wind gusts mixing down with the
most likely scenario seeing sw winds gusting to between 20 and
25kts. SW winds will drop after 06z tonight with seas remaining
elevated, especially over the outer waters during the day
Monday. Visibilities will be reduced in fog overnight tonight.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions possible Monday
night due to seas. Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Tuesday through Wednesday. A chance of showers Monday night into
early Tuesday. A slight chance of showers Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/Buster
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...CB/Buster/Norcross
Marine...CB/Buster/Norcross