436
FXUS64 KCRP 300750
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
250 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Key Messages:

- High Risk of Rip Currents extended into Monday Morning
- Saharan dust arrives through the day

The main focus in the short term will be any impacts we see from
a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. It`s
possible a tropical depression develops in the next day before
making landfall in Mexico tomorrow. The NHC currently has a medium
(50%) chance of development over the next couple of days.
Regardless of development, we will see a plume of deeper tropical
moisture, with PWATs just over 2", spread across the BRO CWA and
our southern tier of counties. PoPs have trended down slightly as
the approaching H5 inverted trough is a bit weaker when it nears
our area. With that said, there is a 20-40% chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

In addition to the convective threat, we will need to monitor for
several coastal and marine impacts. The High Risk of Rip Currents
has been extended through Monday morning as increased swells move
across the Western Gulf. The risk becomes moderate on Monday.
However, if swells remain elevated longer than the Gerling-Hanson
plot suggests, the high risk could be extended into the work
week. Seas over the offshore waters will increased through the
day. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory is now in effect from
18Z-0$Z. We will need to monitor for the potential for minor
coastal flooding during our next high tide cycle or two. Held off
on a Coastal Flood Advisory for now as confidence is fairly low at
this time.

Otherwise, any convection will move west of the region early this
morning. The start of the work week looks dry as upper level ridging
takes back control. Saharan dust will gradually arrive through the
day today which will lead to hazy conditions at times today and as
we kick off the work week. This typically leads to some phenomenal
sunrises and sunsets.

To quickly touch on temperatures, highs today will settle into the
low to mid 90s. Heat indices will generally range from 105-109 this
afternoon. A few locations may briefly reach 110 degrees but likely
for long enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. We add on a few degrees
Monday which will make a Heat Advisory more likely.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts Tuesday, becoming
moderate to major Wednesday and Thursday, moderate Friday through
Saturday.

Things are in the process of changing as far as the pattern is
concerned, and it is a bit concerning for next weekend. However, we
have about 7 days until we get to the most concern so let`s look at
this day by day.

Monday night through Independence Day, the 500 mb ridge that has
been stretched over the southern states from New Mexico to the
Atlantic shore, has been keeping the weather of south Texas rather
quiet since Alberto went through earlier this morning. Model
guidance, and the NBM show that the ridge will continue to keep us
either rain free. High temperatures are expected to warm out in the
Brush Country to 100-105F, and 90-100 in the Victoria Crossroads and
Coastal Plains. Heat indices really pick up as the temperatures warm
up. Friday, however, things look to change as a 500 mb shortwave in
the Northern Rockies begins to drop into the Central and Southern
Plains, which begins to push the ridge east. The trough remains over
the South Texas, and up through the Midwest. The trough looks to
help lower the high temperatures going into the weekend. Moisture
also starts to move in from the east as the PWATs go from 1.5" to
just a bit over 2.0". So the Heat index begins to drop from heat
advisory level.

Of course the question remains what will "Beryl" do? It`s still a
long way off, but the models are starting to show possible tracks
into the weekend possibly getting into the Gulf at the end of their
runs. However, the ensemble members of the ECMWF and GFS still are
still showing southern tracks keeping Beryl away from Texas, but
there are some ensemble members that bring the storm into the
western Gulf. One is the CMC (Canadian Model), with a recurve into
Louisiana. With the ensemble means, and the deterministic ECMWF
keeping it south, and the storm at least 7-8 days out, will continue
to watch where it goes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period. MVFR
CIGs are expected generally from 06Z-15Z. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected mainly across the
easternmost TAF sites beginning early Sunday morning. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is forecast to shift west around the LRD and
COT area by mid-to-late Sunday afternoon. Southeast winds will kick
back up tomorrow afternoon, with gusts generally around 20-25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue as we head into the
work week. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect at 1 PM as
seas build to around 9 feet over the offshore waters in response to
a broad low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. Conditions will improve
late this evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible through the day. The flow weakens Monday night into
Tuesday and briefly veers to the southwest, before backing to the
southeast by Tuesday afternoon and becoming weak to moderate again,
remaining that way through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  79  95  77 /  20  10   0   0
Victoria          95  76  98  76 /  10  10  10   0
Laredo            97  78  98  77 /  40  10  10   0
Alice             96  77  98  75 /  20  10   0   0
Rockport          94  82  95  81 /  20  10   0   0
Cotulla          100  78 101  78 /  20   0   0   0
Kingsville        96  78  96  76 /  30  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       92  83  91  81 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday
     morning for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC/95
LONG TERM....JSL/86
AVIATION...KRS