Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
236 ACUS48 KWNS 310841 SWOD48 SPC AC 310840 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow from Sunday`s storms potentially returning north as a warm front. Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at this range. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential, while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any areas with this outlook. Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this variability keeping predictability low. ..Mosier.. 05/31/2024