081
ACUS48 KWNS 140851
SWOD48
SPC AC 140849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains
and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow
will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS
Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will
likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong
instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe
thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and
associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly
sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored
convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and
potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA
into central/southern MS.

The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and
FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward.
However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday
as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce
any outlook areas.

Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern
Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range
guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will
progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains
early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this
shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early
next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within
the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low.

..Mosier.. 05/14/2024