266
ACUS48 KWNS 300900
SWOD48
SPC AC 300859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wednesday...
At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across
parts of the Midwest and south-central Plains within the
moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front and
reinforcing outflows. This severe potential could include a corridor
from Ohio/Indiana/Illinois southwestward across the Ozarks into
Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear atop the warm sector
will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe
storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the
north-central High Plains. Risk-magnitude uncertainties still
preclude 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for
these scenarios.

...Day 5/Thursday Midwest including Iowa/Missouri...
Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough,
and strong jet in its base, will overspread the north-central Great
Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Ahead of this
mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients, including ample
instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for the season, may
set up across the southern half of Iowa, northern half of Missouri,
and possibly nearby parts of southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas and
western Illinois. However, the potential impacts of convection
Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty regionally, and will thus
defer to future outlooks for an introduction of 15+ percent severe
probabilities.

...Days 6-8 Friday-Sunday...
Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors
of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally
spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and
potentially parts of the East. For instance, on Day 6/Friday,
related to the east-northeastward progression of the upper trough,
an area of interest includes parts of the Ohio Valley toward the
Lake Erie vicinity.

..Guyer.. 06/30/2024