Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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497 FXUS63 KDDC 161640 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1140 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk of severe weather for Sunday and Monday. - Increasing probability of impactful surface winds Monday and Tuesday. - A strong cold front will bring widespread rain and storms and the threat of some flooding in north central Kansas for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 07z observation and upper air analysis has a modest shortwave moving through western Kansas which has produced some brief pulsing showers and thunderstorms. Overall the upper level flow is west to east while the boundary layer winds are out of the southwest leading to a warm airmass during the overnight with 850 mb temperatures around 23 (C) and surface temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Today should be another warm day across southwest Kansas as we should receive ample sunshine and with south to southwest winds staying breezy with a deepening surface low in eastern Colorado to around 993 mb by late afternoon this should help to warm 850 mb temperatures from 25 (C) in the east to 33 (C) in the far west. Highs should get to around 100 especially along and west of 83 where dewpoints should be 60 degrees or less. Highs in the eastern zones will be in the mid to upper 90s and with higher dew points we could certainly have heat index values in the low 100s. Some CAMs are showing isolated storm development in the late afternoon and early evening with another modest shortwave moving in from eastern Colorado. With good curvature in the hodographs and 0-6 km bulk shear around 30-40 kts these storms could contain large hail. CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are contained in the mid and upper levels and the storms should also be high based so gusty winds are also possible and the tornado threat should be nil. Sunday night into Monday the surface low in Colorado will prog very slowly to the NE and deepen to around 990 mb. With a well mixed boundary layer Sunday night lows will only fall into the lower 70s and we should warm back into the mid to upper 90s Monday afternoon. Winds will be breezy during this entire time with the strongest winds and best mixing coming in late Monday afternoon. Euro ensemble for wind gusts show high probabilities of gusts over 34 kts (~80%) and 100% for sustained winds greater than 20 kts. Expect sustained winds in the 25-35 mph range and winds gusts in the 40-50 mph range. By late afternoon a dryline west of highway 83 could trigger a few isolated storms which will have a threat of containing some large hail and gusty winds. Tuesday should be another warm and breezy day across southwest Kansas with a slow moving cold front entering into northwest and north central Kansas by late afternoon. With little upper level momentum this front is expected to rain fairly stationary through Wednesday and with upper level shortwave moving parallel to the front we are expecting rounds of storms from Tuesday night through Thursday. Highest POPs (50-60%) will be located along the I-70 corridor through Wednesday morning and then more widespread POPs (40%) across southwest Kansas will expand south and westward along the stationary front. With the training nature of the storms and higher PWATs (1.3-1.6 inches) the threat of localized flash flooding will increase. WPC has put all of southwest Kansas in a slight risk of flash flooding during this time as a result. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will then be possible across portions of southwest Kansas this evening, potentially affecting the vicinity of KGCK, KDDC, and KLBL generally after 00-02Z. Otherwise, expect widespread VFR to continue overnight. Southerly winds around 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt are expected to persist throughout much of the period as a strong lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...JJohnson