Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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547 FXUS63 KDLH 271016 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 516 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is likely to return Thursday night and ends Friday midday. The heaviest rainfall is most likely along and north of the Iron Range into the Arrowhead of far northern Minnesota. - Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible (5% chance) in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Friday afternoon and evening - Residual showers Saturday in northeast Minnesota give way to a dry Sunday before the next round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is forecast to return Monday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 515 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 High pressure over the area this morning has produced light winds and mostly clear skies, and with the recent rainfall, fog is developing in part of the area, mainly around the Brainerd Lakes and in lower lying areas along the Iron Range. Expect a few more hours of reduced visibilities, but this fog should quickly dissipate within an hour or two of sunrise. Otherwise we should have a quiet day with a warmer day than Wednesday as southerly flow begins to set up over the area with the high pressure sliding to the east of the area this afternoon. Our next weather making system will push a warm front into the area tonight, moving northeast from the Northern Plains into north-central Minnesota this evening. The latest guidance has this moving in slightly faster than before, with precipitation chances increasing during the late afternoon for for the Brainerd Lakes region, the spreading northeast during the evening and overnight. The moist southerly advection accompanying this front provides the next chance for widespread light to moderate rainfall for Thursday night into Friday morning. The main axis of precipitation has shifted slightly south from where it was yesterday, so now the highest probabilities (>50%) of more than an inch of rainfall are now south of the Iron Range, with only a 10% chance of more than 2 inches in the same area. The NAM continues to push the warm front all the way into Ontario, but the newer high resolution models are keeping that boundary farther south as is a bit more typical this time of year, and have favored these more southerly solutions. An axis of instability is expected to extend into northwest Minnesota Friday afternoon, with somewhat favorable mid-level lapse rates aligning along the instability axis to support a small severe weather threat into north-central Minnesota by the late afternoon to evening hours. Model forecast soundings show that the window of potential severe storms is going to be rather narrow, with the area of greatest instability of no more than 1000 J/kg CAPE in that area of around 7 C/km lapse rates. The deep layer shear is strong, but the low level shear parameters are too messy for the best setup. Do not have concerns for much more than scattered strong to near-severe thunderstorms for the Brainerd Lakes to western Iron Range locations for the evening hours. Lingering showers with only a little thunder to linger behind the main cold front overnight. Diurnally driven showers and isolated thunderstorms are favored Saturday afternoon and early evening in the cyclonic flow behind the cold front, but severe thunderstorms are unlikely. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through the area Monday through Tuesday, bringing another round of mainly light to moderate rainfall. There may be a period of storms with locally heavy rainfall Monday evening. Smaller precipitation chances linger through much of the rest of the week with a broad trough over the area and shortwaves moving through the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR ceilings with northwest winds of 5 kts or less are expected for the terminals through at least 00z this TAF period. Fog is possible at several terminals with MVFR/IFR visibilities, but confidence is not very high and have included TEMPO groups for several sites between 09z and 12z. Showers and storms along to spread in from the southwest after 00z, with MVFR conditions moving in after 02z for KBRD. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 515 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Light winds this morning will become southeast later today then increase overnight into Friday. These winds are likely to cause hazardous conditions to develop on Friday. Shower and storm chances will move in late tonight and continue through Friday. After a break Friday night, there will be another chance of showers and storms on Saturday. A cold front with these storms Friday night will cause winds to switch to westerly, then increase again for Saturday before diminishing into Saturday night and Sunday. Hazardous conditions for small craft may develop once again during the day on Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...LE MARINE...LE