Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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692 FXUS63 KDVN 081750 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1250 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower activity will be scattered over the area today, with generally light amounts of rainfall or dry conditions. - Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal through Tuesday followed by a warm up that may bring us near 90 by late in the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 As expected with dry air and the surface warm front found well to our southwest, the severe weather and overnight MCS is taking a more southerly track through Missouri than the bulk of CAMs showed in the past few runs, and for that matter, farther south than most still do today. This has resulted in only trace amounts of rain so far tonight in the south, through the remaining early morning hours could see the northern edge of stratiform rainfall brush through with under 0.25 of rain potential occurring. Farther north, it`s been a dry night with some passing bands of high based virga. Though dry, it has been mostly cloudy through the night, with temperatures holding in the lower to mid 60s, and dewpoints slowly rising back to around 50 in the central and north, and around 60 in the south. Today, a cold front will eventually move east through the area, but in that transition, there is a short wave at mid levels that is now expected to move through areas north of Interstate 80 today. Looking upstream, this is shower activity and even a few lightning strikes ongoing in southeast SD and southern MN with this wave. Thus, our pops today are up, and mostly centered north of I-80 this morning to early afternoon. QPF looks to be a quarter inch or less in most spots, given our dry air mass taking some additional saturation hours that models are not handling (already showing 0.05 falling during this virga period). Highs today under rather extensive cloud cover will be limited to the lower to mid 70s over the north half of the area, which will see some wetbulbing of temperatures at times as well (hours in the 60s during any rainfall). The south, which is going to have a rather mild start in the upper 60s, should reach the upper 70s to around 80 today. Tonight, gradual clearing is expected during the evening, with dry air moving in for the night. This is a similar atmosphere to the one of the past few days, with dew point temperatures generally in the 40s through Monday. Thus, overnight lows tonight, should easily fall to the lower to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Sunday will be a pleasant day with breezy northwest winds, and highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Then the incoming cool regime will last through Tuesday, with mainly dry conditions and wide diurnal ranges each day. Highs 70s will pair with lows in the 50s in most locations Monday and Tuesday. Very lows rain/thunder chances are in place Wednesday and Thursday, as warm advection begins spreading Plains air over the area. The warm air is expected to establish itself earlier than any significant moisture, so I`m inclined to lean into a dry forecast as this heat arrives, which also results in the warmest day forecast to be Thursday, which could reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Moisture, will be in place for Friday and Saturday, which also carries a chance for showers/thunder in those periods. We will be on the southern periphery of westerly flow aloft Thursday night through Friday night, which is a favorable position for a chance for MCS activity. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 MVFR cigs and isolated to scattered showers will occur this afternoon ahead of a cold front moving through the taf sites. VFR conds and light winds expected tonight into Sunday morning. Then north winds increase later in the morning with DBQ expected to have gusts up to 25 kts. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Haase