Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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967 ACUS01 KWNS 221631 SWODY1 SPC AC 221629 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds. ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/22/2024 $$