172
ACUS01 KWNS 271614
SWODY1
SPC AC 271612

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
UT AND WESTERN CO...

...SUMMARY...
The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the
northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening, where very
large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
possible.

...Western MT into Eastern Great Basin...
Morning water vapor loop shows an impressive shortwave trough
rotating across the northwest states.  This feature will result in
strengthening winds aloft across much of the Great Basin and
northern Rockies today, along with increasing large scale forcing
for ascent.  This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the
higher terrain of western MT into parts of WY/CO/UT by early
afternoon.  Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow/shear
through the cloud-bearing layer to support organized and
occasionally supercell storms capable of hail and damaging wind
gusts.

...Eastern MT into the Dakotas...
As convection spreads off the higher terrain into eastern MT, storms
will encounter greater low level moisture/shear, further promoting
supercell structures and the risk of very large hail and perhaps a
few tornadoes.  These storms will progress eastward through the
afternoon/evening into the Dakotas, where upscale growth into bowing
structures is anticipated - capable of significant damaging winds.

...Central Plains...
Farther south, forcing will be weaker and convective coverage should
be less.  However, convection will intensify as outflows from the
High Plains spread eastward into the moist axis, with a combination
of bowing and supercell storms expected.  Damaging winds are
probably the main risk, but substantial low level and deep layer
shear could support large hail and a tornado or two in this region
as well.

...Carolinas/GA...
A very moist and unstable air mass is present today from
central/eastern NC southwestward into eastern GA.  Scattered mid and
high clouds will somewhat mitigate afternoon heating.  But a few
strong/severe storms are expected, with water-loaded downdrafts
capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Weinman.. 06/27/2024

$$