287
ACUS01 KWNS 251626
SWODY1
SPC AC 251625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
LOWER OH VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible across parts of the
central/southern Great Plains and Midwest, late this afternoon and
evening.

...OH Valley...
A large but weakening MCS is spreading southeastward across parts of
OH/IN/IL, with a broken line of strong cells along the leading line.
 The western flank of this activity over IL may intensify by mid
afternoon, spreading into parts of eastern MO and southern IL/IN,
posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail.

...IA/MO/NE...
Farther west, a hot, humid air mass is present today across much of
MO, southern IA, and eastern NE.  Widely scattered intense
thunderstorms are expected to form later this afternoon - mainly
along a boundary from southern IA into eastern NE.  These storms
would be in a sufficiently sheared environment for supercell
structures capable of very large hail and damaging winds.  Storms
are expected to sag southward through the evening.  Models differ on
evolution of storms overnight, with some solutions suggesting a
larger MCS building into southern MO by the end of the period.

...SD/NE...
An axis of southeasterly low-level winds and dewpoints in the mid
60s to 70s extends from the Black Hills region into southeast SD and
central NE.  Strong heating in this area will result in ample CAPE,
leading to scattered afternoon and evening storms.  Steep mid-level
lapse rates and moderately strong west-northwest flow aloft will
promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado.

..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/25/2024

$$